Monday, April 28, 2008

Does Operation Chaos Really Help Republicans?

I've been sort of "on the fence" on whether or not the prolonged Democratic primary helps or hurts them. One of the smart guys in e-Campaigning, Michael Turk, opines on his blog that that struggle will ultimately benefit the Democrats and their nominee.
First, people in this country have incredibly short attention spans. Any fatigue present in June is unlikely to carry until November. It’s just not like us to carry that baggage for five months. This whole notion stems from the fact that nobody has seen a race like this in generations. People are used to these fire-and-forget campaigns. The argument assumes that people prefer that and don’t want something more. I think there is ample evidence, just in the water cooler conversations, that people are engaged in this, have picked a candidate to back (regardless of their party) and want to see who wins.

That’s significantly different from an election plagued by fatigue.

Second, the Democrats will end up with a huge advantage coming out of this. Having been forced to compete in all 50 states, they will have a ground game in all 50 states. They will have built the machinery to compete in places the GOP has ignored for decades either because it was “safe” red territory or because the states simply weren’t on the radar.

Voters in these states will be intimately aware of the Democrat, will have seen countless ads for them, will have seen them in their state. The GOP, by comparison, will have no exposure, name ID solely based on their name, not their message, and no organizers. That’s going to make more states competitive.
These two points have always been dancing around in the back of my head. Sure...Operation Chaos is tons of fun now...but I think Turk is right that there is no way rank and file Democrats are going to still be this irritated by the "other" candidate come November.

Don't pass over Turk's second point... The GOP, no matter if we're talking the RNC or the Ohio GOP (88 in 08: It's More Than Just a Slogan!), tends to get complacent. We need to fight that battle constantly. Of course, our candidate is not exactly been a real inspiration to the base to begin with, but we have to stay engaged or we are going to see what one-party rule looks like from the other side. Surely, no Republican wants to see that.