Justin of Right on the Right put out the challenge to wargame the '06 election. I don't think much will change actually...US House of Representatives:
AZ05 - Republican hold - Hayworth should retain this seat. The district is red and no real reason for that to change in this cycle.Doing the math here it looks like the Democrats pick up Bernie Sanders' "independent" seat and that's it. Final: 232 Republicans to 203 Democrats.
AZ08 - open seat (R hold) - The district leans Republican, but they have been electing an openly gay GOPer who has decided not to seek re-election. The GOP field appears stronger (primary results?) at this time.
CA04 - Republican hold - Despite being targetted by the DCCC, this is a pretty red district. The only thing that might do Doolittle in is if he personally gets indicted in the Abramoff mess.
CA11 - Republican hold - Environmentalism will not be that strong an issue to turn this red district blue. Pombo will return to Congress.
CA22 - open seat - This is a very red district. Kevin McCarthy should win fairly easily.
CA41 - Republican hold - Jerry Lewis has been connected to the same lobbyists that got to Duke Cunningham, but unless he is likewise indicted, I see nothing to get in his way of re-election.
CA50 - Republican hold - This was Cunningham's seat that Bilbray just won in a special election. It is highly unlikely that the results will change all that much between then and November.
CO03 - Democrat hold - Although this one has potential for a Republican pickup. I need more information on this race. Scott Tipton is the Republican challenger; John Salazar is the Democrat incumbent.
CO04 - Republican hold - This one could go to the Democrats if the Reform Party's candidate (a former Reagan EPA appointee) actually pulls votes away from the Republican incumbent.
CO05 - Republican hold - Even though it is technically an open seat, this district hasn't elected a Democrat since it was formed in the 1800's.
CO06 - Republican hold - No reason to suspect that Tancredo is in any trouble of losing his seat.
CO07 - open seat (R loss) - This one is a free-for-all. Let's give it to the Democrats for now, but I need more information.
CT02 - Democrat pickup - Even though the Republican incumbent managed to save a submarine base from BRAC, I suspect it will not be enough.
CT04 - Republican hold - This is Chris Shays' seat. This one will be a nailbiter down to the bitter end, but I think Shays wins.
CT05 - Republican hold - Even though things look bad for Republicans in Connecticut, there is no real reason why Nancy Johnson should lose this time either. She's won against the odds before, she will do so again.
FL09 - open seat (R hold) - This is a very red district, no reason to doubt that whomever wins the GOP primary should win the general.
FL11 - open seat (D hold) - This is a very blue district, no reason to doubt that whomever wins the DEM primary should win the general.
FL13 - open seat (R hold) - This was Katherine Harris' seat. It is a red district with no real reason to turn blue now.
FL22 - Republican hold - Florida has been electing Clay Shaw since the '70s, absolutely no reason to stop now. His opponent will be well funded though, this one might be close.
GA03 - Democrat loss - This should be one of the more competitive races in this cycle. I'm going to take the risk and say that the GOP will pick this one up.
GA12 - Democrat hold - Redistricting should make it more interesting, but I think the Democrats will hold this one.
HI02 - open seat (D hold) - Democrats should hold this seat no matter who ultimately wins the primary.
ID01 - open seat (R hold) - Although the Republican is considered controversial, there is no reason to believe he has much to worry about in this red district.
IL06 - open seat (R hold) - The Democrat barely won her primary and doesn't live in the district. This one trends GOP.
IL08 - Democrat loss - This seat is a GOP top priority. The district is GOP leaning and the Democrat incumbent is a one-termer.
IL 17 - Democrat hold - It is a fairly blue district with no real incentive to turn red.
IN02 - Republican hold - Chocola might be vulnerable, but I think he holds the seat.
IN08 - Republican hold - The Bloody Eighth doesn't generally like incumbents, but I suspect Hostettler is actually doing better than the 39% approval rating might suggest.
IN09 - Republican hold - It's an evenly divided district, so anything can happen, but I think the incumbent has the edge in this one.
IA02 - open seat (R loss) - The district leans blue. Even though the GOP incumbent is now running for governor, I expect the seat to go to the Democrats.
IA03 - Democrat loss - The Democrat incumbent is old and has broken a term limit pledge. The GOP challenger is well funded. I'm going to be an optomist and call it for the red team.
KS02 - Republican hold - It might be a swing district, but those tend to go with the incumbent.
KS03 - Democrat loss - This one should be an upset. Bush took the district and the incumbent just barely won re-election in 2000 and 2002. If the GOP candidate gets some finacial backing, this one could be fun to watch.
KY02 - Republican hold - No way this seat changes hands.
KY03 - Republican hold - Democrats might make this one interesting, but there is no reason not to send Anne Northrup back to Congress.
KY04 - Republican hold - This should be an interesting fight, but I think Davis holds on to the seat even though Ken Lucas is a well known politican in the district.
LA02 - Democrat hold - It won't matter if William Jefferson is in prison or not, LA is the cultrue of corruption.
LA03 - Democrat hold - Denny Hastert didn't help us in this district at all with his post Katrina comments.
LA07 - Republican hold - The only wildcard is whether or not there are enough Republicans that still live there to keep him in the seat (district damaged by hurricane Rita)
MD03 - open seat (D hold) - The GOP hasn't even announced a candidate...
MI07 - Republican hold - Don't look for the seat to change hands during the primary or the general.
MI09 - Republican hold - Although the Republican incumbent is vulnerable and the Democrat challenger is a good fundraiser, I don't think it will be enough for the seat to change hands.
MN02 - Republican hold - Expect this GOP leaning district to see right through the Democrat challenger.
MN05 - open seat (D hold) - Even though the incumbent is retiring, I do not expect this very blue district to suddenly turn red.
MN06 - open seat (R hold) - There is some infighting going on in the blue aisle, not that it would matter much in this GOP leaning district.
MN08 - Democrat hold - No Republican has held this seat since 1947...
MS02 - Democrat hold - No way Republicans win in this district.
NE01 - Republican hold - I see no reason for Fortenberry to lose here.
NE03 - open seat (R hold) - No matter which Republican wins the primary, he will win the general in this red district.
NV02 - open seat (R hold) - This is a solidly red district.
NV03 - Republican hold - The GOP incumbent has ticked off Sen. Harry Reid. How frightening!
NH01 - Republican hold - Bush isn't running in this election, and he won here in '04 anyway. Look for this seat to remain red.
NH02 - Republican hold - The state may be trending blue, but the polls still show this seat stays red. I believe them.
NJ05 - Republican hold - It is a red district and the seat doesn't appear to be in too much trouble of going blue.
NJ07 - Republican hold - Like NJ05, it is a red district and I don't really see that changing here.
NJ13 - open seat (D hold) - Few districts are bluer than this one.
NM01 - Republican hold - The Democrat challenger might pull off an upset here, but I don't think that will happen as Heather Wilson has faced strong challengers before.
NY03 - Republican hold - Peter King will be coming back to Congress as one of NY's few Republican Congressman.
NY11 - open seat (D hold) - The retiring incumbent won with 94% of the vote last time...
NY13 - Republican loss - I'd love to be wrong about this one, but I think an upset is on the horizon here.
NY20 - Republican hold - Although he's trying his hardest to lose, I think the incumbent has a chance to retain the seat.
NY21 - Democrat hold - Don't look for change here...the incumbent has won nine times before, no reason to see it differently now.
NY24 - open seat (R loss) - Boehlert is retiring. It is a swing district in New York...expect doom.
NY25 - Republican hold - While the Democrats are going to put up a candidate this time, I expect they will lose.
NY26 - Republican hold - Tom Reynolds wins re-election in this red district.
NY29 - Republican hold - Kos supports the Democratic challenger. Kos never wins. Never.
NC08 - Republican hold - last time Democrats ran a production assistant from the tv show West Wing. This time they are pinning their hopes on a guy with a "grassroots campaign"
NC11 - Republican loss - Another Abramoff disaster.
NDaL - Democrat hold - Altohugh this one might be fun to watch.
OH01 - Republican hold - Chabot is pretty popular in the district. I don't see a real reason why this would go blue.
OH04 - open seat (R hold) - The district hasn't elected a Democrat since 1936.
OH06 - open seat (D loss) - Blasdel will win this one. Charlie Wilson couldn't even get enough signatures to get on the primary ballot...
OH13 - open seat (D hold) - The GOP doesn't appear to have made significant enough gains in the district to win the seat.
OH15 - Republican hold - No way Deborah Pryce loses this seat to the likes of mary Jo Kilroy.
OH18 - Republican hold - Bob Ney is innocent. Bob Ney gets re-elected.
OK05 - open seat (R hold) - It is a really red district.
OR05 - Democrat hold - This one is hard to judge, so we leave it with the incumbent.
PA06 - Republican hold - Like OR05, this is a tough one so we score it for the incumbent.
PA07 - Republican loss - Weldon goes down. I hope I'm wrong.
PA08 - Republican hold - This one will be interesting as an Iraq War vet is the Democrat challenger.
PA10 - Republican hold - Don Sherwood deserves to go down in flames, but he won't.
PA12 - Democrat loss - John Murtha deserves to go down in flames for different reasons.
PA13 - Democrat hold - The Democrat incumbent is a proven fundraiser and no matter what sort of grassroots campaign Raj puts together, expect the voters to tell him that he's fired.
SC05 - Democrat loss - The district is moving red. If the GOP challenger gets enough financial backing, he could take the seat.
SDaL - Democrat hold - I'd love to see Herseth go down, but I don't think the time is right just yet.
TN01 - open seat (R hold) - Whomever the GOP ultimately puts up here will win this red district.
TN09 - open seat (D hold) - Whomever the Dems ultimately put up in this race will win this blue district.
TX10 - Republican hold - Altohugh the interesting thing will be to see from whom does Libertarian Michael Badnarik pulls votes.
TX17 - Democrat loss - The GOP should be embarassed that a Democrat has won in this district that is GOP leaning and the home of George W. Bush.
TX22 - open seat (R hold) - Delay is gone. Business should return to normal for this red district.
UT02 - Democrat hold - While UT is a red state, this district is still fairly moderate.
VTaL - open seat (D pickup/hold) - This is "independent" Bernie Sanders' seat. It won't be won by a Republican.
VA02 - Republican hold - Nothing to write home about...
WA08 - Republican hold - Expect no changes here either.
WV01 - Democrat loss - Mollohan is a loser. If WV re-elects him, they deserve what they will get.
WV02 - Republican hold - Republicans shouldn't expect a victory here without some work, but I expect the seat to remain red.
WI08 - open seat (R hold) - This one is still something of a free-for-all though...
WYaL - Republican hold - No way a Democrat wins here.
US Senate:
MN: Open Seat (D) - Dem Loss - Mark Dayton (D) is retiring; Mark Kennedy (R) looks good to pick up the seat.We started with 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 1 Independent with 33 seats up for grabs. FINAL: 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 1
TN: Open Seat (R) - Rep Loss - Bill Frist is retiring; Harold Ford (D) looks unbeatable.
VT: Open Seat (I) - No Change - Jim Jeffords is retiring; look for Bernie Sanders (I) to move up from the House.
MD: Open Seat (D) - Dem Loss - Paul Sarbanes is retiring; I think Michael Seteele has what it takes to win it.
WA: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - As much as I'd like to see McGavick (R) pull it out, I don't think he can.
CT: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - So long as Lieberman wins his primary, the seat is his.
NJ: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Loss - Tom Kean Jr (R) should beat Robert Menendez (D - replacement for Jon Corzine who became governor)
FL: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - No way Katherine Harris (R) wins this race.
MI: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - This is Debbie Stabenow's (D) race to lose...
VA: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - This will be the one to watch as Reagan Democrat James Webb takes on '08 POTUS hopeful George Allen.
MT: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Unless Abramoff strikes again, Conrad Burns (R) should hang on in a squeaker.
RI: RINO Seat (RINO) - RINO Hold - We can only hope that Rhode Island comes to their sense, but alas I don't think it is meant to be...
OH: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - There is NO way Ohio is going to elect an uber-liberal like Sherrod Brown (D) to the US Senate. DeWine (R) is bad enough...
NV: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Son of President Peanut, Jack Carter (D), should make this interesting, but look for Ensign (R) to make it to the finish line first.
AZ: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Jon Kyl (R) is up against an independently wealthy businessman, but should win so long as the money is there.
PA: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Loss - Santorum (R) is in trouble. Look for Casey (D) to take the Keystone State.
MO: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Another race to keep your eyes on. Talent (R) should fend off McCaskill (D) in this one.
CA: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Feinstein...
DE: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Delaware is a Democrat stronghold. I see no reason to see that changing now.
HI: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Akaka...
IN: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Indiana is a Republican stronghold. Lugar (R) is their man.
ME: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - There is no reason that I can see that Maine would not send Olympia Snowe back to the Senate.
MA: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Kennedy...
MS: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Lott...
NE: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Ben Nelson (D) should hold on to his seat.
NM: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Jeff Bingamen (D) looks to be able to return to the Senate.
NY: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Clinton...
ND: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Behold the power of incumbency...
TX: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - ...and again...
UT: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Hatch...
WV: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - Byrd...
WI: Dem Seat (D) - Dem Hold - I don't see Wisconsin not sending Herb Kohl back to the Senate, unfortunately.
WY: Rep Seat (R) - Rep Hold - Craig Thomas (R) should keep this Republican stronghold's seat.
