By Matt for the TIB Network:
I have been fooling around with Opinion Journal's Electoral College Calculator here at work, but we don't have Flash installed so it wouldn't give me my results. Fortunately for me, Steve the Llama Butcher thinks like me.My best guess today: Bush 286 (53%); Kerry 252 (46%). I'm still hoping for a 60% to 40% finish that I predicted on Saturday's show, but I'll take these numbers... In order to get my favored scenario, Bush will need Hawaii (4 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV) and New Jersey (15 EV) to break our way (58.5% EC Vicotry).
The popular vote doesn't matter to me, but I do believe Bush will win that as well. Unlike Steve, I believe Bush will break the magic number of 50%...
...for what all that's worth...
Insta-Update
Turns out, this is also today's prediction over at Election Projection.3:45PM Update
Minnesota's 10 EV are looking rather attractive too...that would give us the 60% scenario right on the button...I think Michigan (17 EV), Pennsylvannia (21 EV) and New Hampshire (4 EV) are pretty weak blue states at the moment, but those will go for Kerry. I mention them because they could still go for Bush...and are worthy of consideration as substitutes for HI, WI, and NJ for the 58% solution.
11/2 Update
