Ohio House - 35th District Update

There is a new player entering the field and his name is Ron Maag. Maag touts an impressive list of endorsements including:

Citizens for Legal Communities
Sheriff Si Leis, Hamilton Co. Sheriff
Sheriff Tom Ariss, Warren Co. Sheriff
Sheriff Richard Jones, Butler Co. Sheriff
David Miller, Republican State Central Committeeman, Hamilton Co.
Prosecutor Rachel Hutzel, Warren Co. Prosecutor
Commissioner Pat South, Warren Co.
Commissioner Mike Kilburn, Warren Co.
Jim Aumann, Warren Co. Treasurer
Beth Deckard, Warren Co. Recorder
Neil Tunison, Warren Co. Engineer
Nick Nelson, Warren Co. Auditor
Former State Rep. George Terwilleger
Mayor Amy Brewer, Lebanon
Dr. Jeff Monroe, Lebanon City Council
Mayor Cheryl Davidson, Corwin
David Fornshell, Vice Chair Warren Co. Republican Party
Lori Viars, pro-life leader
Mike Geygan, business leader
Roseann Siderits, conservative leader
Maynard & Stella Hagemeyer, Republican leaders

There are some powerhouse names there! There is also one name that the insiders will recognize as one that will cause me to look at this candidate very hard. No, I won't reveal which name it is...

It appears that the race wasn't complicated enough and a third candidate was needed. Eric Minamyer was wounded by having lost his trustee seat to a John Rabenhold sock puppet. And Rabenhold is still a lobbyist for Check'n'Go who is racking in the fat cat dough.

Initial analysis: This is good news for Rabenhold unless Minamyer drops out and supports Maag. Why? Because at this point, it appears as if Rabenhold holds all the cash cards... This will be DeWine vs. Pierce vs. That Other Guy all over again. The anti-Rabenhold vote is going to have to solidify around a single candidate if they wish to take him out here and now. The only strategy that I can think of that would overcome the war chest that Rabenhold has gathered is destroyed by having the vote split in a multi-candidate race. If that holds, then the guy with the cash wins...

HT: Bizzy via email...but look for NixGuy to have something to say on this too at some point.

Rabenold Sock Puppet Beck Defeats Minamyer in Symmes Twp.

This result is interesting because there are implications for the 35th District Ohio House race...

Phil Beck: 1540 - 52%

Eric Minamyer: 934 - 31%

Mike Howell: 473 -16%

If this result is any indication of how Minamyer will be received across the district, then we might as well get used to the idea of State Rep. John Rabenold (R-Check'n'Go).

The strategy against Minamyer was to paint him as arrogant and not receptive to constituent input. And it appears to have worked. Team Minamyer can look forward to similar tactics employed by Team Rabenold from here on in...and if they hope to win, they need a counter-argument that goes beyond Check'n'Go.

Minamyer still looks like a great candidate on paper. The question now is whether or not he can rebound from this setback.

Minamyer Wins OEC Complaint

Wilkinson also has this tidbit today:

The Ohio Elections Commission on Thursday found Symmes Township trustee candidate Phil Beck violated election laws.

After hearing a complaint filed against Beck by opponent Eric Minamyer Thursday (Nov. 1), the commission decided Beck had knowingly made a false statement against Minamyer.

The commission decided declaring Beck in violation was penalty enough in this complaint.

Beck claimed that if Minamyer becomes a state representative - a position Minamyer has said he plans to pursue next year - it would cost the residents of Symmes Township $30,000 for a special election to fill his vacancy on the Board of Trustees. Trustee races, however, do not require special elections.

The false claim was broadcast on a local public access channel.

Beck admitted to the error, and said he tried to make up for his mistake in a guest editorial in the Community Press and at a public candidates forum.

This is Beck's first time running for public office. He said he thinks this violation will not affect his campaign.

The interesting thing about this race is that there is a theory floating around that Beck is being supported, directly or indirectly, by Minamyer's opponent for the 35th Ohio House seat, John Rabenold. Now that is totally rumor at this point, but if you start looking at the circumstancial evidence, things start not looking real good for the anti-Minamyer crowd.

Minamyer to Have Competition for His Symmes Trustee Seat

From the Community Press:

Local architect Phil Beck moved to Symmes in 2000 and is a Navy reservist and an Iraq war veteran. He said his run for trustee is fueled by his enjoyment of community service and his abilities as a problem-solver.

Beck said he hopes to use those abilities to work on regional issues, such as traffic congestion in the area, and the continued development of township parks.

He says he also represents a change in the leadership style that the trustees are currently under.

"I want people to know that and they will when I meet them," Beck said.

Camp Dennison resident Mike Howell said he decided to run to broaden the choices of voters going to the ballot box Nov. 6. He said his priorities if elected would be to create a recreational center in Symmes, possibly with the help of a neighboring community; the development of the Rozzi's property into a multi-functional park, and the creation of more smaller, neighborhood parks.

Howell, a lifelong resident, said he's been involved with township government for about 20 years. He was on the Symmes safety committee until it disbanded in 2002, and says some of his attempts to get on other committees have been met with political backlash.

"Being a trustee is one way I can serve people and not have to worry about being on a committee," Howell said.

This subject came up when Mr. Minamyer met with a few members of the State of Ohio Blogger Alliance a few weeks ago. He's staying on his message:

Minamyer, a 12-year incumbent, said despite his plans to run for the 35th District seat in the Ohio House of Representatives in 2008, he's hoping to retain his seat because he's got unfinished business in Symmes.

"There's still a lot I'm working on that won't be done," he said.

It is going to be up to the voters as to whether or not they can go along with this:

Minamyer said he believes voters will support his plans to possibly leave township government in favor of the house of representatives because of his 12-year commitment to Symmes and his honesty in announcing his candidacy for the state house so early in the process.

I can't speak for anybody other than myself, but when I heard this at the Alliance meeting I wasn't overly convinced that this wasn't about having a fallback position in case he loses the Ohio House race.

I want to go back to something that Mr. Beck is quoted as saying:

He says he also represents a change in the leadership style that the trustees are currently under.

"I want people to know that and they will when I meet them," Beck said.

Now, I find this very interesting. How widespread is this impression of Mr. Minamyer and his fellow colleagues on the Symmes Township Board of Trustees??? It does sort of tie in with one of the weaknesses that I identified earlier:

There are times when you can really tell that Mr. Minamyer has served in the United States Navy for 30+ years achieving high rank. A few times while answering questions from the committee, the atmosphere became a little adversarial (some "blame" for this can be placed on the nature of the inquisition). I would not characterize the session as being remotely hostile; maybe he had an "off day" because previous exposure to Minamyer has been very positive.

Minamyer has a clear passion for politics and has command of the issues effecting the region, but there are hurdles that must be cleared...this is one of them.

35th District - Ohio House Update

A small group from the State of Ohio Blogger Alliance had an opportunity to meet with Eric Minamyer yesterday. Later that afternoon, Mark and I had a chat with John Rabenold. Both are pretty good candidates but for different reasons.

Eric Minamyer's Strengths

He's a policy wonk, pure and simple. He has great command of the details of most issues and is pretty quick to fire off a statistic or three. He received high marks for vision and platform demonstrating a pretty clear agenda that he wants to accomplish if elected.

Minamyer has a solid resume with real political experience in elected office. As head of the Symmes Township Board of Trustees, Eric has directly made a significant contribution to his community. He also previously served on the local school board.

Eric Minamyer's Weaknesses

There are times when you can really tell that Mr. Minamyer has served in the United States Navy for 30+ years achieving high rank. A few times while answering questions from the committee, the atmosphere became a little adversarial (some "blame" for this can be placed on the nature of the inquisition). I would not characterize the session as being remotely hostile; maybe he had an "off day" because previous exposure to Minamyer has been very positive.

John Rabenold's Strengths

He's a smooth political operative. What Rabenold lacks in experience he has in polish. I found John to be very personable and likable. If electability becomes a factor in this race, John should do very well. [8/20 UPDATE:] The fundraising race appears in Rabenold's favor as well, at least at this point anyway.

John Rabenold's Weaknesses

Mr. Rabenold appears not to have given just a whole lot of thought in to what he'd like to accomplish if he won the election. While we appreciate that Team Rabenold is focused on the primary, the ultimate goal is to get a representative to the state legislature that has an agenda that rflects the will of the district.

This is Rabenold's first run for elected office. While he has sufficent experience with the Ohio Senate (he was an aide to a couple of key players), he has never had to face the electorate. Furthermore, Rabenold appeared to be more "in love" with the process rather than the actual results.

Recommendation

I'm sure we'll have plenty of opportunity to engage both of these gentlemen again as this race heats up; but at the moment, I feel as if Eric Minamyer's ideas are more in line with what we need in the Ohio House of Representatives. However, should John Rabenold win the primary, the district will still be served very well. These are two very different candidates and either one of them would be acceptable at this point.

8/20 Update

NixGuy's post reminds me of an important issue that I failed to include in the discussion of Rabenold: Check'nGo. Rabenold has indicated that he would recuse himself from any legislation that would directly benefit the company for which he works. That position is fairly reassuring; but as we learn more and more about how the company is diversifying in to other issues, the list of legislative issues for which he would have to skip grows. I would have to include alternative energy, among others, on the list of subjects that I would expect Rabenold to consult with the ethics committee and the counsel's office on before voting.

Minamyer for State Rep.

Well, Tom Blumer is off the hook...

On the show last night, Tom reported that there was a dude running for the 35th District that was a lobbyist for the pay day lending industry and Mark and I immediately asked if Tom was announcing his candidacy on TIB Radio...

Tom emailed me this morning to say that Eric Minamyer has indeed already announced his candidacy for this seat so Tom will not have to run.

We got to know Eric a bit when he ran against Jean Schmidt in the special election to replace Rob Portman. He is extremely capable and just the sort of man we could use in Columbus.

The seat he is running for is currently occupied by the term limited Michelle Schneider.