POTUS 2012: Rudy Wasn't Serious in 2008, not Serious Now

From someone associated with the campaign in 2008, over at Legal Insurrection:

Today there was an interesting article in the Hill about Rudy Giuliani being a possible "dark horse" in 2012. Apparently, "It’s not because Giuliani has shifted; it’s because the Republican Party has. The 2010 election was less about social conservatism than it was fiscal conservatism, and that aligns with Giuliani’s socially moderate and fiscally conservative ideology."

As someone who worked on that campaign in 2007-2008, my answer is an overwhelming NO.

OK, now why wouldn't Rudy be serious about running. The shift away from social issues seems to be playing to his strengths. Well, according to Legal Insurrection, Rudy may not have been very serious about winning even in 2008, and should not consider running now:

I was on the ground with the campaign in New Hampshire and throughout NY/NJ, it was virtually run by a group of "yes men" who never told Rudy that it was a bad idea to run down to Florida for several weeks at a time "campaigning." The election wasn't a total loss for Rudy, after all, he got higher speaking fees and I'm sure his wink towards a possible 2012 bid is exactly what will keep those engagements in demand. If he really wanted the presidency, and didn't bother vesting in the time in it during 2008 - when the "America's Mayor" image was ripe in the minds of millions, I doubt he would bother putting in the will in 2012.

Interesting points all around. I tend to agree with the blogger. As America chooses to forget 9/11, Rudy's excellent work that day and in the days that follow is not on the minds of Americans anymore. That is sad, but a reality.

A Message for/from Team Rudy Ohio

This was in the WMD mailbag...

Ohio Team Rudy:

We need your help to get Rudy's name on the ballot in Ohio.

This is the final weekend of our petition effort in Ohio. We will have volunteers and campaign staff across the state working to obtain the final signatures we need to comply with the Ohio petition process. This effort is critical to the campaign and we need your help.

This will be a fun way to help the campaign while getting to know your fellow Rudy supporters and campaign staff in your area. If you can join us, or need further information, please respond by return email or call Yancy Williams at (646) 510-4734.

Thanks again for your help making sure Rudy is the next President of the United States!

Have at it Ohio Rudy fans...

Ponnuru on Romney and Rudy on Farm Subsidies

The Corner:

I just had a chance to go back and look at their answers the other night. Boy, they were bad. Both of them made the ludicrous national security argument—supposedly if we don't subsidize food, we'll be at the mercy of other countries at dinnertime. Both of them argued that we had to keep subsidizing agriculture because other countries do it. We have to keep stealing from American taxpayers and consumers, in other words, because other countries do it to their citizens too. I know this makes political sense, but still—ugh.

We had a brief discussion on this on the radio show and in a thread here at WMD... I agree with Ramesh on this one. These answers sucked...BIG TIME...as VP Cheney might say...

Michael Grunwald over at TIME reports that farm incomes are at an all-time high. Yet, here we are continuing to smack around the taxpayer and the top-tier Republican candidates for president can't manage a a simple statement that we've gone overboard in these subsidies.

Once again, let me say that I am all for a safety net to make sure that our nation's farmers are protected from financial ruination, but let's not pretend that business isn't a risk. Corporate welfare is corporate welfare and I'm against that.

What say you?

UPDATE: Rudy is on his "fiscal conservatism" bit again today...

The Invasion Begins

GOP candidates for President are finally realizing that they ought to be tapping in to Ohio. I have word from Rudy and Fred on upcoming visits...

Fred goes first...

Senator Thompson continues his dialogue with the American people about keeping America secure, uniting us, and pushing for continued prosperity. He will be coming to your area, and you have a chance to meet and engage with him:

Friday, December 7, 2007
12:00 p.m.
Columbus, Ohio

Luncheon Reception: $1,000 per person
Luncheon Reception w/ Photo-Opportunity: $2,300 per person

For more information on this event, please contact Sarah Newman 571-730-1000 or snewman@fred08.com.

And now, two events scheduled for Rudy:

On Tuesday, November 27th Rudy will be in Vienna at the home of the home of Thomas Schubert for a 6:00 p.m. reception. On Wednesday, December 5th Rudy will be in Cincinnati at the Queen City Club for an 8:30 a.m. breakfast.

Co-Chairman:
DR. JOHN BALKO
CRAIG BONAR
BOB CARR
THOMAS SCHUBERT, ESQ.
THE HONORABLE LYLE WILLIAMS

Hosts:
CANDY BANGOR
PAT GALLINA
DENNIS GIBSON CARTER LEWIS
CLARENCE SMITH
CHARLES WERN, ESQ.

CORDIALLY INVITE YOU TO ATTEND A RECEPTION

HONORING

RUDOLPH W. GIULIANI

TO BENEFIT THE RUDY GIULIANI PRESIDENTIAL COMMITTEE

THE HOME OF THOMAS SCHUBERT
RUNNYMEDE FARM
1637 SODOM HUTCHINGS ROAD
VIENNA , OHIO 44473

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2007
6:00 P.M.

**TIME CONFIRMED**

PRIVATE RECEPTION WITH PHOTO OPPORTUNITY $1,500 PER PERSON

RECEPTION WITH REMARKS
$1,000 PER PERSON

BUSINESS ATTIRE REPLY CARD

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:

PAMELA HASHEM * PHONE: (614) 732-0746
FAX: (614) 732-0753
PAMELA.HASHEM@PRHCONSULTINGGROUP.COM

CAROLINE WILLIAMS * PHONE: (804) 344-8081
FAX: (804) 344-0092 CAROLINE@CTARESOURCES.COM

Host Committee:
CYNTHIA & EDMUND ADAMS
JOHN BARNES
THOMAS CODY
MICHAEL J. CONATON
GENINE & MARK FALLON
DEE & BENJAMIN GETTLER
BUDDY LAROSA
MICHAEL LAROSA
ROBERT J. MILLER
DAVID O'MALEY
JEFF RUBY
MATTHEW SMITH

CORDIALLY INVITE YOU TO ATTEND A BREAKFAST RECEPTION

HONORING

RUDOLPH W. GIULIANI

TO BENEFIT THE RUDY GIULIANI PRESIDENTIAL COMMITTEE

THE QUEEN CITY CLUB
331 E. FOURTH STREET
CINCINNATI, OHIO 45202

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2007
8:30 A.M.

BREAKFAST WITH PHOTO OPPORTUNITY - $1,000

PER PERSON ($2,000 PER COUPLE)

BREAKFAST WITH REMARKS - $500 PER PERSON ($1,000 PER COUPLE)

BUSINESS ATTIRE REPLY CARD

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:

PAMELA HASHEM * PHONE: (614) 732-0746
FAX: (614) 732-0753
PAMELA.HASHEM@PRHCONSULTINGGROUP.COM

Pat Robertson Endorses Rudy Giuliani for President

From the inbox:

New York City – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that Pat Robertson has endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President of the United States.

“It is my pleasure to announce my support for America’s Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, a proven leader who is not afraid of what lies ahead and who will cast a hopeful vision for all Americans,” said Pat Robertson. “Rudy Giuliani took a city that was in decline and considered ungovernable and reduced its violent crime, revitalized its core, dramatically lowered its taxes, cut through a welter of bureaucratic regulations, and did so in the spirit of bipartisanship which is so urgently needed in Washington today.”

“I am very encouraged by Pat’s support,” Rudy Giuliani said. “His confidence in me means a lot. His experience and advice will be a great asset to me and my campaign.”

So much for the evangelical vote going to Romney...

Rudy's Hollywood Support

Yesterday, it was announced that Robert Duvall was supporting Guiliani for President and would be hosting a fundraiser.

Today, we learn of Ron Silver's support for the Mayor.

Interesting how these two announcement coincide with Fred Thompson's entry in to the race...

UPDATE: Here is video of Ron Silver talking about Rudy on Neil Cavuto's show...

Rudy's Labor Day Polling Update

Mayor Giuliani is in an extremely favorable position heading into September - the month that traditionally accelerates the election cycle; by the first of October, the campaign will be in full speed.

We have had a very good summer. Our campaign is operating smoothly, working together and moving cohesively in the same direction. The Mayor and the campaign have been focused on a forward looking agenda with the 12 Commitments and continue to set the tone for discussion with voters. The commitments have successfully provided direction and focus to the national dialogue. Furthermore, the Mayor has performed exceptionally well in the debates. Overall we should be pleased with the state of the race and our position going into the fall.

Our lead in the states with the most delegates at stake is proving to be very solid and sustainable. We are well positioned to compete and win in both the traditional early states, Florida and key February 5th contests. And we prove to be the most competitive and viable general election candidate against Hillary Clinton.

NATIONAL POLLS

Since the start of the year, Mayor Giuliani's national poll numbers have defied both his critics and "so- called" conventional wisdom. Of particular note - the Mayor's national ballot support has been steadily climbing since mid-July. Midsummer, our Real Clear Politics average was approximately 25%, our Political Arithmetik trend was under 25% and our weekly public polling average was 26%. Mayor Giuliani's current Real Clear Politics average has grown to 28%, our Political Arithmetik trend has returned above 25% and weekly averaging is edging closer to 35%.

National major media polls conducted in August report Mayor Giuliani's ballot support posting modest gains and increasing and his lead growing. In a recent CBS poll, the Mayor's ballot share is 38%, up 5-points from the previous CBS poll conducted in early July. Furthermore, we post a 20-point lead over Senator Thompson - a 12-point increase in our lead.

August Polls Reporting Gains for Mayor Giuliani in Support and Advantage over GOP Field

Date
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Survey
Increase in Support
Increase in Advantage

8/22-8/26
Giuliani 27
McCain 12
Romney 15
Thompson 17
Hotline/Diageo
Increase in Support +7
Increase in Advantage +9

8/21-8/22
Giuliani 29
McCain 7
Romney 11
Thompson 14
FOX News
Increase in Support +2
Increase in Advantage +4

8/8-8/12
Giuliani 38
McCain 12
Romney 13
Thompson 18
CBS News
Increase in Support +5
Increase in Advantage +12


We are now in our strongest position in nearly 5 months. Not only has our ballot share been on the increase, we have seen our lead over our nearest opponent grow as well. In August, the Mayor's average lead over his closest opponent in major media polls is 12-points. According to the Gallup Poll1, an analysis of elections since 1952 shows that in almost every case, the man to whom Republican voters were giving the highest poll total in the fall before the election ended up becoming the eventual GOP nominee, and in no situation did a strong front-runner go on to lose the nomination. Furthermore, Mayor Giuliani has led every Gallup poll conducted in 2007 and enjoys a double digit advantage over the rest of the GOP Primary field.

National Major Media Polls Conducted in August

Date
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Survey
Advantage over 2nd Place

Average
Giuliani 31
McCain 12
Romney 12
Thompson 19

Advantage over 2nd Place +12

8/22-8/26
Giuliani 27
McCain 12
Romney 15
Thompson 17
Hotline/Diageo
Advantage over 2nd Place +10

8/21-8/22
Giuliani 29
McCain 7
Romney 11
Thompson 14
FOX News
Advantage over 2nd Place +15

8/13-8/16
Giuliani 32
McCain 11
Romney 14
Thompson 19
Gallup
Advantage over 2nd Place +13

8/8-8/12
Giuliani 38
McCain 12
Romney 13
Thompson 18
CBS
Advantage over 2nd Place +20

8/6-8/8
Giuliani 29
McCain 16
Romney 12
Thompson 22
CNN
Advantage over 2nd Place +7

8/3-8/5
Giuliani 33
McCain 16
Romney 8
Thompson 21
USA Today/Gallup
Advantage over 2nd Place +12

8/1/2007
Giuliani 30
McCain 13
Romney 13
Thompson 22
Newsweek
Advantage over 2nd Place +8


FEBRUARY 5 STATES

We are very strong in key states, like New York , New Jersey , Connecticut and California - states with a total of more than 350 delegates at stake. In New York and New Jersey , we average just under 50% of the vote share and lead our nearest opponent by approximately 30-points. In Connecticut the Mayor has been the frontrunner in every poll conducted and maintains an average lead of more than 20-points. In the last 2 California polls the Mayor has a lead of 20 or more points. New York , New Jersey , Connecticut and Delaware are "winner take all" states, and will provide 200+ delegates for Mayor Giuliani on that day. Given the complex nature of delegate allocation in other states plus large leads in delegate-rich states like California and Illinois , a triple-digit delegate lead after February 5 is a distinct possibility.

THE EARLY STATES

Florida remains a strong state for the Mayor. Rudy Giuliani has lead essentially every Republican primary poll conducted in Florida in 2007 and after a brief tightening in state polling in June and July; the Mayor has begun to reopen his lead - now more than 10-points on average.

New Hampshire is slowly developing in to a two-way race between Mitt Romney and Mayor Giuliani and our internal average of public polls shows that Mayor Giuliani is beginning to narrow the race. Senator McCain continues to be strong in New Hampshire though.

Despite several lead changes in South Carolina , Mayor Giuliani has been consistently strong. Mayor Giuliani has led 6 of 7 polls in South Carolina this year, and has consistently been in first or second place in South Carolina polling. And Fred Thompson seems to have begun a bit of a decline since late May and early June.

THE FIELD

It is clear that Senator Thompson's indecision may have cost him his best opportunity to enter this race with the momentum he once had. That said, he still has the opportunity to enter this race and regain some of the momentum that he had 2 months ago, but it will be difficult. However, that is not to say that we should not anticipate a bump in the polls for Senator Thompson when he announces his candidacy next week.

To be certain, Senator McCain is still a serious candidate in the race, and he should not be ignored as an opponent for the nomination. Senator McCain has proven himself to be a very good grassroots campaigner, and while his organization has gone through ups and downs, voters still see Senator McCain as a top-tier candidate. Governor Romney has run a textbook campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire and has been slowly building in national polls. In Iowa , Governor Romney began the year with about 7% of likely caucus goers supporting him. Through extensive paid media saturation he has been able to inflate that number to over 25%. Nationally, he began the year averaging about 6% and is now nearing 15% in national polls. And Governor Romney has once again moved into a 4th place average in national polls, surpassing Newt Gingrich.

Governor Romney's spending in Iowa has been remarkable. By most estimations, he has spent at least $5 million dollars in Iowa this year and has the poll numbers to show for it. His grassroots organization does not appear to be quite as strong as many had thought - he only turned out 4,500 votes in the Ames Straw Poll (at a cost of about $880 a vote).

We assumed, with no top-tier opposition, he would consolidate a lot more of the votes and would at least match President Bush's 1999 winning effort. In fact, his organization did not even match Steve Forbes' 2nd place effort of 4,921 votes. Governor Romney has spent a great deal of money in an environment that has been a vacuum and without any real competition. Therefore, despite his tremendous spending, large staff and double-digit lead, the relative weakness of Mitt Romney's Straw Poll victory seems to leave him open to defeat in Iowa in the caucuses. Despite large field organizations and having spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television in South Carolina and Florida , Governor Romney has not made real progress like he has in Iowa or New Hampshire . In South Carolina Governor Romney has been unable to keep support consistently above 10%. In Florida Governor Romney has leveled off with about 10% of Republican primary voters supporting him - placing him and Senator McCain in a tight battle for 3rd.

In all, Governor Romney has spent millions of dollars on cable television and broadcast communications and has seen a fair return on his early investment.

GENERAL ELECTION

While it is early to look ahead to the general election, recent polls question the viability of Mitt Romney in the 2008 general election. In 13 of 15 polls conducted this week by Survey USA , Mitt Romney was the weakest Republican candidate tested against presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Even in Massachusetts Governor Romney was a weaker general election candidate against Hillary Clinton than Mayor Giuliani.

According the a recent Pew Research Center survey, Mitt Romney would enter the general election with more voters having an unfavorable opinion of him than voters have of Hillary Clinton. Any Republican entering the general election with higher "unfavs" than Hillary Clinton will find it very difficult to win.

It is too soon to assess the general election viability of Fred Thompson. We have yet to see if Fred Thompson will be able to carry a Republican message nationally or will have to focus on a smaller, regional base.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall our operations and poll numbers are strengthening in Iowa and New Hampshire . The Mayor continues to do very well in South Carolina and Florida . (With Michigan moving its primary to January 15th, I suspect the Mayor will enter that race in a very strong position).

Our advantage in states with the most delegates is proving to be solid and durable. We are positioned to both compete in and win the traditional early contests, Florida and key February 5 states. Furthermore, public polling continues to prove we are the most competitive and viable general election candidate against Hillary Clinton.

We ought to be able to tell in fairly short order what sort of effect that Fred Thompson will have on this race once he officially gets in next week.

I disagree that it is too early to be looking at the possible general election match ups and drawing some tentative conclusions. Rudy has been the only candidate that has been fairly competitive against Hillary! and Obama. Fred Thompson, while liked by the conservative blogosphere, has a long road to travel to make his numbers come even close to what Rudy has achieved thus far.

'08 GOP for POTUS Polling Notes

I've got two polls that I want to take a look at in this post. The first is the latest Gallup poll that is our snapshot of the nation's Republicans; and the second is the Quinny poll of Ohio Republicans.

Quoth the Gallup release:

stable in each of the last three Gallup Polls, with support for the leading candidates varying by not more than a percentage point. The latest survey, conducted Aug. 3-5, 2007, shows Rudy Giuliani as the established frontrunner, with still-unannounced candidate Fred Thompson solidifying his second place standing, John McCain solidly in third, Mitt Romney in fourth, and the remaining candidates at 2% or less support nationwide. The results differ very little when looking at Republicans versus Republican-leaning independents, and also among those who say they are extremely likely to vote in the Republican primary or caucus in their state next year.

In the poll, Giuliani draws the support of 33% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, followed by Thompson at 21%, McCain at 16% ,and Romney at 8%. These results exclude support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has not ruled out a bid but also has not taken steps toward a formal candidacy like his fellow unannounced candidate Thompson. Prior to this poll, Gallup had regularly reported results including Gingrich, who is supported by 10% of Republicans when he is included in the ballot.

In the tracking, we see that very little has changed over the last month. Rudy's (33%) and Fred's (21%) numbers have pretty much solidified. Rudy picked up a point that Romney lost along the way and McCain has entrenched himself in third.

Two things to consider when looking at these numbers is that Fred still hasn't announced (he is likely to do so in early September) and Gingrich has been dropped from the poll. Newt, who had 10% in this poll at one point, has managed to dsicredit the war on terror as "phony" and called the entire Republican field "pygmies".

At this point, I'd have to declare Rudy as the frontrunner but we're still keeping our eyes focused on the September horizon when Fred announces. The big loser in this poll is Romney, who really should have been able to secure third from McCain with the whole immigration fiasco, but he couldn't pull it off. Mitt may have bucket o' cash, but most of the rank and file wither don't know who he is or don't like him.

Let's move on to the Quinny and the situation here in Ohio:

In a Republican primary race, Giuliani gets 29 percent, with 11 percent each for Thompson and McCain and 8 percent each for Romney and Gingrich.

Rudy is the only guy in the Republican field who comes close to beating Hillary in the Great State of Ohio. And all he does is tie her at this point...

"55 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion." That is a key stat that the Fredheads have got to do something about. I'd really like to see Fred come to Ohio and get the word out himself. Everybody knows Rudy here, and if Fred expects to compete, he's going to have to stop testing the waters and jump on in. It will take more than just announcing to make up the 10+ points that Fred is behind Rudy.

As bad as it is for Fred, the situation is actually worse for Mitt Romney in Ohio as "60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion." Those are numbes that should tell you that it is time to fire whoever, if anybody, is running the Ohio operation...

It looks as if Ohio is still Rudy's to lose...

Rudy and The Fred on Federalism

There has been a lot of talk about federalism these days amongst the Republican candidates for president. Federalism is defined by the American Heritage Dictionary as:

A system of government in which power is divided between a central authority and constituent political units.

The American Heritage New Dictionary of Cultural Literacy, Third Edition adds:

A system of government in which power is divided between a national (federal) government and various regional governments. As defined by the United States Constitution, federalism is a fundamental aspect of American government, whereby the states are not merely regional representatives of the federal government, but are granted independent powers and responsibilities. With their own legislative branch, executive branch, and judicial branch, states are empowered to pass, enforce, and interpret laws, provided they do not violate the Constitution. This arrangement not only allows state governments to respond directly to the interests of their local populations, but also serves to check the power of the federal government. Whereas the federal government determines foreign policy, with exclusive power to make treaties, declare war, and control imports and exports, the states have exclusive power to ratify the Constitution. Most governmental responsibilities, however, are shared by state and federal governments: both levels are involved in such public policy issues as taxation, business regulation, environmental protection, and civil rights.

Note: The precise extent of state and federal responsibility has always been controversial. Republican administrations, for example, have tended to grant more authority to the states, thereby encouraging political and economic freedom but discouraging comprehensive social welfare. Until the middle of the twentieth century, the Supreme Court left the interpretation of many civil rights guarantees to the states, resulting in widespread discrimination against minorities.

So now we know a bit more about the subject matter, let's look at what is being said by the candidates.

Rudy on Federalism

Rudy was interviewed by the LA Times recently:

In an interview last week, Giuliani said the key to resolving cultural arguments "where our society on a national level ends up being very divided" is to apply the "principle of federalism." Questions on topics such as gun control, gay rights or aspects of abortion, he continued, "are issues that I think the founding fathers would say should be consigned to state and local governments, experimenting, deciding, having different views, and the federal government having a more limited role."

That perspective leads Giuliani toward positions uncomfortable for both left and right. As mayor, for instance, Giuliani supported President Clinton's nationwide ban on semi-automatic assault weapons. But President Bush allowed that ban to lapse, and now Giuliani (in a view many gun-control advocates consider impractical) says decisions on whether to ban such weapons should be made "on a state-by-state, almost city-by-city basis."

Conversely, although Giuliani opposes same-sex marriage, his federalism perspective leads him to also oppose conservative calls for a federal constitutional amendment to ban it. "The way we should deal with it now is let states decide do they want to have some sort of domestic partnership or civil union?" he says.

Even under a federalist strategy, abortion remains the most intractable social dispute. A purist federalist approach would argue for overturning Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision guaranteeing a nationwide right to abortion, and allowing states to decide whether to ban or permit the practice. But that would ignite political warfare across the 50 states likely to inflame rather than extinguish the conflict about the issue.

Giuliani, who supports abortion rights, doesn't urge Roe's repeal and insists that he can't predict whether the "strict constructionist" justices he's pledged to appoint would vote to overturn it. But he argues that even if the Supreme Court reverses the decision, the nation could "get through it" by allowing each state to "come to a different decision" about whether to legalize abortion in the aftermath. For now, he says, states should maintain flexibility on whether to publicly fund abortion through Medicaid.

Giuliani applies his federalist perspective far beyond social issues. He says his next step on healthcare would be to encourage more state experimentation with expanding coverage. Likewise, he would delay any national requirement to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to give the state experiments with limits underway in California, Florida and elsewhere "more time to play itself out."

Even with this strong preference, Giuliani says "you can't be a rigid slave to federalism." Disappointing conservatives, he says he's inclined to retain the nationwide educational testing requirements Bush imposed (though he would seek greater incentives for private school choice).

Nor would he "absolutely rule out" federal legislation on assault weapons if the state action he prefers proves insufficient. Disappointing liberals, he says he might eventually support a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage if too many states approved it, especially through the courts.

There is some debate as to whether or not these views makes Rudy a federalist or not. I leave that determination to you, the reader.

The Fred on Federalism

The Fred has a great blog piece on federalism. The highlights:

Beyond specific policies, what's needed are some basic rules to restrain the federal rule-makers.

A good first step would be to codify the Executive Order on Federalism first signed by President Ronald Reagan. That Executive Order, first revoked by President Clinton, then modified to the point of uselessness, required agencies to respect the principle of the Tenth Amendment when formulating policies and implementing the laws passed by Congress. It preserved the division of responsibilities between the states and the federal government envisioned by the Framers of the Constitution. It was a fine idea that should never have been revoked. The next president should put it right back in effect, and see to it that the rightful authority of state and local governments is respected.

It is not enough to say that we are "for" federalism, because in today's world it is not always clear what that means. What we are "for" is liberty for our citizens. Federalism divides power between the states and government in Washington. It is a tool to promote freedom. How we draw the line between federal and state roles in this century, and how we stay true to the principles of federalism for the purpose of protecting economic and individual freedom are questions we must answer. Our challenge – meaning the federal government, the states, our communities and constituents – is to answer these questions together.

Since Fred is writing this himself, as opposed to having this written about him, I get the sense that federalism is more than just a tactic intended to sway an audience (conservatives) in to thinking that he'll be okay on issues that he might be squishy on.

The Analysis

How these two candidates view federalism is fundamental to how these candidates think.

It appears to me that the focus on federalism from the Rudy camp comes as a dodge to soothe social conservatives, in particular, on their issues and fails to address what Rudy actually believes about the content of those issues. As a political strategy, it is brilliant. Like the announcement that Rudy would appoint strict constructionist judges, the federalism argument is intended to deflect criticism on certain issues by deflecting the responsibility for those decisions to the states. That might work in a campaign, but I question whether or not President Rudy would actually go through with it once in office. Not that I doubt his sincerity, I just know that absolute power corrupts absolutely and when you are the leader of the free world, I would imagine the view changes a bit.

Fred's piece is another example of how American's used to speak and write about their country. It is filled with passionate language and high ideals. He is a very skilled writer and thinker. While Fred may be taking advantage of the Rudy debate without mentioning the Republican frontrunner by name, the views expressed in the piece are right on target and well worthy of a candidate for the highest office in the land. One doesn't get the sense from Fred that he is using the federalism argument to get around a policy disagreement with the American people. That speaks volumes for his character and brand of leadership.

Bo Derek Endorses Rudy

New York City –The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee announced today that actress Bo Derek is endorsing Rudy Giuliani for President. Derek, a native of California, will aid the campaign’s efforts in the state.

“Rudy Giuliani is a problem solver with common sense leadership who made a tremendous and positive difference as Mayor of New York, impacting peoples’ lives for the better,” said Derek. “Like many Americans, I was impressed with Rudy’s strong leadership and calm resolve in the wake of the September 11 attacks. I truly believe that Rudy is the only Republican candidate that can win this election because he has the experience this country needs in these difficult times.”

Derek supported President George H.W. Bush in his presidential campaigns in 1988 and 1992. She also campaigned for President George W. Bush during his successful presidential bids in 2000 and 2004. Derek also appeared at the Republican National Convention in 2004 in New York and at the 2000 convention in Philadelphia.

Derek serves as Special Envoy of the Secretary of State on Wildlife Trafficking and as Honorary Chairperson for the Veterans Administration National Rehabilitation Special Events for Disabled Veterans.

WMD Blast

NOTE: This post will be updated throughout the day with interesting links and observations.

John Boehner Op-Ed in ITB: "College Bill Adds To Entitlement Burden"

Taegan Goddard notes the Quinny poll's results for the presidential race in Ohio. I have my own questions about that poll -- which I hope to get to later -- but it looks like good news for Rudy...at least, until he gets to the general election where HILLARY! Inc. edges him...

AP News Alert:

WASHINGTON (AP) The administration's report on Iraq today will show that there has been satisfactory progress on eight benchmarks, unsatisfactory progress on another eight, and mixed results on the other two, defense officials said.

As I expected, this actually turned out to be a mixed bag. Last week, we were hearing from leakers that this report was going to say that no progress was being made and that we were in a total quagmire with no hope. As usual, the politically motivated leakers were wrong.

Another AP News Alert:

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) President Gen. Pervez Musharraf vows to crush Islamic extremists in every corner of Pakistan.

I prefer action to all these words...

Rudy Giuliani Announces Foreign Policy Team Members

New York City – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee announced today several members of Mayor Giuliani’s foreign policy team. The team will advise the Mayor on a foreign policy vision that advances the United States as a world leader, while expanding America ’s involvement in the global economy, strengthening our reputation around the world, and keeping our country on the offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us.

Charles Hill, former executive aide to President Ronald Reagan’s Secretary of State George P. Shultz, a lecturer in the International Security Studies program at Yale University , a special consultant on policy to the United Nations Secretary-General, and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, will serve as the Chairman of the Senior Foreign Policy Advisory Board. He is also the campaign’s Chief Foreign Policy Advisor.

Senior foreign policy team members include Norman Podhoretz and Senator Bob Kasten. Other team members include Steve Rosen, Senior Defense Advisor; Martin Kramer, Senior Middle East Advisor; S. Enders Wimbush, Senior Public Diplomacy Advisor; Peter Berkowitz, Senior Statecraft, Human Rights and Freedom Advisor; and Kim R. Holmes, a Senior Foreign Policy Advisor.

“This group is committed to helping the Mayor develop a comprehensive foreign policy vision that keeps America globally strong, promotes the expansion of freedom, and recognizes that our greatest challenge is remaining on offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us,” said Bill Simon , the campaign’s Policy Director. “Mayor Giuliani understands the critical foreign policy issues facing our nation, and we’ve assembled an outstanding team with decades of experience and knowledge to help advise the Mayor.”

There are some real heavy hitters there...

Rudy on Shamnesty

Via email:

New York City – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee released the following statement today regarding the U.S. Senate’s vote on immigration legislation:

“Today a majority in the Senate made clear this bill shortchanged the American people by failing to end illegal immigration and failing to secure our borders. The bill did not deserve to move forward.

“As I have said before, this bill – which I believed was based more on compromise than on principle – failed to do several basic things, including: securing our borders, creating a uniform tamper-proof ID card for all foreign workers and students, establishing a single nationwide database of foreigners, and mandating the full implementation of a biometric ‘check in-check out’ system.

“The legislation was a hodgepodge at best, and I believe it would have ultimately made our country less secure.

“I urge the President to use the authority and funds at his disposal to do everything possible to end illegal immigration and secure our borders.”

I think it is a good move for candidates to speak out against this bill. I would have liked to have seen more of that sort of thing before the vote actually...

Blair Resigns

AP News Alert:

LONDON (AP) Tony Blair resigns as prime minister after a decade in power.

When America needed a friend, Tony Blair was there...the rest of Old Europe, not so much...

UPDATE - AP News Alert:

LONDON (AP) Queen Elizabeth II confirms Gordon Brown as Britain's new prime minister.

...and a new era begins...

UPDATE 2 - Rudy Guiliani on Blair (received via email):

"Like all Americans, I was deeply moved by Prime Minister Tony Blair's strong support for America after 9/11. The people of New York and of America will forever remember how articulately and passionately Mr. Blair stood by America 's side. I was fortunate to meet with him outside of St. Thomas Church at a memorial service for UK citizens who died on 9/11. It was clear then that the Prime Minister saw very real similarities between the war we are currently fighting and World War II.

“I had occasion to visit with him several times in London and I could see then that while his approach may have been separated by generations and ideology, history will see Mr. Blair as a modern-day Churchill. Because they led through strength and fought for what is right, millions have been liberated, and the world is on a path to safety and prosperity.

“I am hopeful that the next prime minister will maintain the same level of friendship and cooperation with America, and the same level of resolute, principled engagement with the world."

UPDATE 3 (12:57PM) - AP News Alert:

UNITED NATIONS (AP) The United Nations, United States, European Union and Russia announce the appointment of Tony Blair as their representative in the search for Mideast peace.

That was fast...

BREAKING: Portman is Resigning

AP News Alert:

WASHINGTON (AP) White House budget director Rob Portman is resigning and will be replaced by former Iowa congressman Jim Nussle, Bush administration officials said Tuesday.

Interesting...

UPDATE: This just in from TIME:

Portman said he was leaving the administration for personal reasons. His family has remained in Cincinnati and he has been commuting home on weekends for 14 years. "I need to be home more. I've got three kids ages 12 to 17. It's just been very hard to spend as much time with them and Jane as I need to at this time of my life," he said.

Portman also made it clear he might seek a return to elective office, either by running for governor of Ohio or for the Senate. Portman said the president "is in a good position" to contest the Democratic-controlled Congress over spending if necessary. The White House has issued some veto threats against spending bills in recent days, and more are coming, the budget director said.

Emphasis added. I think Portman ought to run against RINOvich in the primary, but I suspect he's talking about waiting to take on Sherrod Brown... ??? I'm pretty sure that John Kasich has got a pretty good lock, as much of one as can be had this far out, for the governor's race...

UPDATE 2: Malia Rulon gets the answer on the Senate question for USA Today:

The move paves the way for Portman to re-enter politics, either as a gubernatorial candidate in 2010, when Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland's term is up, or a U.S. Senate candidate in 2012, when Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's six-year term is up.

Portman said Tuesday he's interested in either scenario.

"I'm going to look at the options ... focusing on the possibility of 2010. I also would be looking at 2012, possibly," Portman said, adding that leaving the administration certainly will enable him to "do more politically."

2012 is an awfully long time to be on the sidelines...

UPDATE 3: Rudy Guiliani on Portman's replacement (received via email):

“President Bush made a great choice in Jim Nussle for Director of the Office of Management and Budget. The President’s decision was the right one for our country and for taxpayers.

“Jim and I have long shared a commitment to fiscal discipline and I have every confidence he will continue to be an effective steward of taxpayers’ hard earned dollars in his new position.

“As our campaign continues to grow our team in Iowa , I am grateful to Jim for his early support and for his hard work in helping our team get started.”

UPDATE 4: I posed a hypothetical to one of our friends at the Ohio GOP about convincing Sen. Voinovich to hang 'em up and here is the response:

Traditionally, the party has endorsed its incumbent officeholders. We will have a new chairman in January of 2009, and I can't speak to what the state committee might do at that time. We're focused right now on getting Republicans elected in 2007, then we'll move on to 2008 and worry about 2010 after we keep Hillary out of the White House.

While I like the focus on the immediate future, I get the impression that the party is expected to endorse Voinovich if he chooses to stay in the race. I understand where my source is coming from as this is a delicte situation. Voinovich has a 45% to 42% approval/disapporval with 12% undecided. Mike DeWine had these numbers awhile back...and we all know how that one turned out. Portman is still virtually unknown in the state but has been out on the rubber chicken circuit as of late...

UPDATE 5: Republican Leader, my Congressman and a Great American -- John Boehner -- issued this statement received via email:

“Rob Portman has been an important ally of House Republicans in promoting fiscal discipline, fighting wasteful spending, and holding the majority accountable for its promises. During his tenure at OMB, Rob proved himself to be an effective advocate for fiscal discipline just as I knew he would be. I’ve known Rob for a long time and think very highly of him, both as a colleague and a fellow Ohioan. While I’m sorry to see him go, I wish him great success in his future endeavors.

“I’m pleased that Jim Nussle will soon take the reins at OMB. Jim and I worked together before in the early 1990s as part of the Gang of Seven where we fought to make the House more transparent and accountable. I know he’ll work with House Republicans closely – just as Rob did – to reform the way Washington spends taxpayer dollars, and to fight against wasteful and excessive spending. House Republicans are committed to sustaining any Presidential veto over excessive spending by Democrats, and I look forward to working with Jim in that effort this year.”

UPDATE 6: Statement from Ohio GOP Deputy Chariman Kevin DeWine:

“Rob is one of smartest, hardest-working people I know, but at the end of the day he’s a family man. What so many people respect about him is his ability to look beyond politics and policy to the things that matter most – being a dad and husband. Ohioans share those values, and it’s one of the many things they’ve come to respect and admire about Rob Portman.

“I’m sure his family will be happy to have him closer to home again, and his party feels the same way. Rob has an amazing record of leadership and accomplishment. He would make a fine addition to our statewide ticket in 2010.”

UPDATE 7 - 6/20 - Portman for VP? Geraghty seems to think there is a possibility...

I tend not to think Portman is the answer to solve all of the GOP's problems...

Rudy's Twelve Commitments

Via email:

Bedford, NH – During a speech at the Old Bedford Town Hall in New Hampshire today, Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced Twelve Commitments to the American people, a bold vision aimed at moving America forward through change and reform, overcoming new challenges and increasing accountability in Washington .

Rudy’s Twelve Commitments are based on the principles of giving people more freedom, more power, and more responsibility over their own lives, while protecting our nation, strengthening our economy, and improving the quality of life.

“I believe America solves its problems best from strength, not weakness, and from optimism, not pessimism,” Giuliani said. “My Twelve Commitments are a promise to this generation and generations to come that we will keep the American dream alive. I believe it’s the kind of leadership and common sense accountability the American people need in Washington .”

Mayor Giuliani will travel the country this summer to detail each of his Twelve Commitments.

The Twelve Commitments:

I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us.

I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation.

I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.

I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.

I will impose accountability on Washington.

I will lead America towards energy independence.

I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions.

I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children.

I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges.

I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.

I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents.

I will expand America ’s involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.

I have to admit, I like the sound of this...

Excerpts from Rudy Giuliani's Remarks to U.S. Airport & Seaport Association

Via email:

“Since September 11, we've spent a lot of time improving our airport security. … there's a tendency -- in emergency planning and security planning, there's a tendency sometimes to always focus on the last attack, and to sort of assume the next one is going to be like the last one. And I'm afraid that that can't be the model with these terrorists that we're facing. And I commit myself…to make sure that we bring port security up to the same level as airport security, because that might very well be the way they try to attack us next time. …
In New York City we developed a plan called CompStat. … Same thing is necessary at our ports. … We need a PortStat program that can extend the principle by monitoring what comes into our country, helping to secure our seaports and our global maritime trade. … PortStat can tell us that by identifying the strengths and the weaknesses along our supply chain. … PortStat would build on the same principles that made CompStat such a success. …

The four principles of CompStat: accurate and timely intelligence, effective tactics, rapid deployment of resources where you see a problem…relentless follow-up and assessment. …

For example, you'd want to know how many containers have been screened in any period of time for radiation before they get to our seaports. If a nuclear weapon is set to explode when it arrives…it does no good to wait to inspect the cargo until the contents are unloaded onto trucks 7 days later. It has to be inspected where it is loaded on the ship, where it's put in the container. You have to be able to document that. If you find anything that's suspicious, you have to be able to follow up on it. We need to know whether a container is a danger, before it gets to our shores.

And we need a system to determine how effective we are in doing those inspections. … It is necessary to deploy accountability measures like this in order to figure out where we're being effective, where we're not being effective, and where the additional resources have to be secured.

And if we commit to this, it will also aid us in the exchange of intelligence. Part of the key to CompStat is a complete exchange of intelligence. … we're going to need the cooperation of law enforcement organizations all over the world for you to do your work effectively. And then we need a system to track that all the way through. … And nowadays, if you have a system for tracking information, it's phenomenal what you can achieve and what you can do.”

Louis Freeh Endorses Rudy Giuliani for President

Via email:

New York – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that former Director of the FBI, Louis Freeh, has put his support behind Rudy Giuliani for President of the United States . Freeh will serve as Senior Homeland Security Advisor and Chair of the Mayor’s campaign in Delaware .

“Rudy Giuliani’s optimistic leadership is responsible for making the city of New York what it is today –one of the safest large cities in the country and a place where the world feels safe to visit. Through Rudy’s use of innovative crime fighting programs like CompStat, he demonstrated that with determination and strength, solutions can be crafted to seemingly intractable problems,” Freeh said. “I have known and admired Rudy for his law enforcement leadership and innovation for over twenty-five years. His devotion to public safety and the rule of law, plus real life knowledge about crime reduction turned one of the country’s most dangerous cities into the model for law and order.”

“No one knows better than Louie Freeh what it takes to fight crime. I admire Louis Freeh for his dedication to justice and public service and I’m honored to have him as an advisor to the campaign,” Mayor Giuliani said.

About Louis Freeh:

Freeh is President of Freeh Group International, LLC, a practice of former federal judges and former senior FBI leaders who provide legal, governance, investigative, litigation, and risk management services, headquartered in Delaware with offices in Washington, DC and New York City. He joined the Board of Bristol-Myers Squibb in 2005 and works with the Board of DaimlerChrysler AG on compliance and other matters. Freeh has also been a member of the L-1 Identity Solutions Board since 2006 and the Fannie Mae Board.

Freeh served as General Counsel, Corporate Secretary and Ethics officer at MBNA Corporation, as well as Vice Chairman of MBNA America Bank, N.A., from 2001 to 2006. Prior to serving as Director of the FBI from 1993 to 2001, Freeh was the United States District Judge, Southern District of New York from 1991 to 1993.

From 1981 to 1991, Freeh served in the U.S Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York while Rudy was the United States Attorney, including as Deputy United States Attorney; Associate United States Attorney; Chief, Organized Crime Unit; and Assistant United States Attorney. From 1975 to 1981, he worked as a Supervisor and Special Agent for the FBI in Washington, DC and New York. Freeh has a Juris Doctorate degree from Rutgers Law School, a Master of Laws Degree from the New York University School of Law, and a Bachelor's degree from Rutgers College.

I think we're supposed to be jazzed about Clinton's FBI Top Cop who slept while al Qaeda plotted against us and executed a number of attacks against us abroad...

...or something...

Guiliani on the Latest Gaffe from Edwards

Via email:

MAYOR GIULIANI: “[W]hen you go so far as to suggest that the global war on terror is a bumper sticker or slogan, it kind of makes the point that I've been making over and over again. That the Democrats, or at least some of them, are in denial.”

Quinnipiac OHIO Poll Data for POTUS Race

Rudy Still Leads in Ohio; Fred Moves Up Too

The Quinnipiac OHIO poll has been released and has some vrey interesting numbers in it for the presidential race:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gets 43 percent to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's 42 percent in the 2008 presidential race in Ohio, and leads other Democrats by wider margins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


Giuliani tops New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 47 - 43 percent, and leads former Vice President Al Gore 48 - 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In other general election matchups:
Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent;
Sen. Obama bests McCain 44 - 41 percent;
McCain edges Gore 45 - 42 percent.

While Giuliani leads the Republican pack with 23 percent, followed by McCain at 17 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has moved up to 15 percent, a 7-point jump since April 26. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 11 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 6 percent.

Rudy still beats every Democrat in the race...and check out these favorable/unfavorable numbers:

Guiliani: 54%-26%

McCain: 45%-28%

Romney: 67% don’t know enough about him to form an opinion

Clinton: 46%-45%

Edwards: 44%-29%

Obama: 42%-34%

Ohioans know Rudy and they like him.

Fred Thompson made some inroads this month in Ohio as he moves up to 15%; up from 8% last month. It looks to me as if Fred took support from Romney and McCain this month as Guiliani's 23% remained unchanged over the month.

The bad news for Fred is that so far, he loses to Hillary, Obama, and Gore...the numbers don't show that it is impossible task for Fred to make up the ground against Obama or Gore, but the Hillary/Fred race has less than 10% left undecided.

Romney is in trouble in Ohio...if 67% of Ohioans don't know enough about him to form an opinion at this point, he's doomed.

UPDATE: LincolnLogsBlog has more analysis.