Wisconsin Exit Polls Wrong on Walker But Right on Obama? Another Media Hyped Lie

Michael Barone has looked at the flawed exit polling from Wisconsin last night that had the governor's race a dead heat and Barack Obama with wide support, something the leftards jumped all over as their attempt to stave off Conservative Scott Walker in Wisconsin was an EPIC FAIL! Rachel Maddow and others, who said, wow, the exit polls are off when compared to the actual election, relied on those exit polls to make themselves sleep better by saying that the same exit polls were proof Obama still owns Wisconsin. Michael Barone would beg to differ:

The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%. With 92% of the vote in, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s excellent website reports the score as 54%-46% Walker. Let’s say that’s the final results: only 13% of precincts from Milwaukee County and 3% of precincts from Madison’s Dane County — the Democrats’ two reservoirs of big majorities — remain uncounted. It has been emblazoned on mainstream media that the exit poll also showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state 51%-45%. But if you think the exit poll was 4% too Democratic — and that’s in line with exit poll discrepancies with actual vote results over the last decade, as documented by the exit poll pioneer, the late Warren Mitofsky* — that result looks more like 49%-47% Romney. Or assume the remaining Milwaukee County precincts whittle Republican Governor Scott Walker’s margin over Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to 53%-47%, which looks likely, the Obama-Romney numbers would look like 48%-48%.

This is in a state that Obama carried 56%-42% in 2008. But those putative numbers also look very much like the numbers in 2000, when Al Gore carried Wisconsin 47.8%-47.6% over George W. Bush, or the numbers in 2004, when John Kerry carried Wisconsin 49.7%-49.3% over Bush.

Dear Conservative Presidential Candidates and Voters: Don't Believe the Polls...See Reagan, Ronald

Folks, many of us in the conservative movement may be feeling a bit low right now. Many of us may have seen the latest Rasmussen Reports sahttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifying that a conservative stalwart like Sarah Palin loses to Obama 50 to 33, or that or that Perry loses to Obama by a point or two, or that Bachmann faces a similar result as Palin. Don't believe the polls right now. The media is trumpeting them to discourage you. They are trying to tear you down. Look, the field of GOP candidates is in the double digits. There haven't been any head to head debates. The media is trying, as they have in the past, to sow the seeds of doubt so we end up with a Gerald Ford or John McCain again. Don't believe it. Look to history. Time Magazine, March, 11, 1980:

For several decades, it has been an article of faith among politicians and political analysts that no candidate can win a U.S. presidential election unless he can dominate the broad center of the spectrum, that all candidates on the edges of the left or right are doomed. Barry Goldwater's "extremism . . . is no vice" campaign of 1964 provides the classic evidence, reinforced by George McGovern's 1972 defeat in 49 out of 50 states. And since G.O.P. Front Runner Ronald Reagan relies upon a base of support that is on the far right wing of the Republican Party, some experts have long declared that if he wins the nomination, the G.O.P. would simply be repeating the suicidal Goldwater campaign. Ex-President Gerald Ford left no doubt about his views when he warned last month: "A very conservative Republican cannot win in a national election."

But last week, after Ford gave up his own ambitions and Reagan's nomination took on a look of inevitability, a reassessment was under way across the country. The consensus was that although many hazards lie ahead, Ronald Reagan indeed has a chance to be elected as the 40th President of the U.S.

National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President. This suggests that Reagan is not the strongest G.O.P. choice for the November election and that he clearly faces an uphill battle.

See that, folks? This is just 8 months before election day, not over a year. And Reagan was down 25 points to Carter. There had been no debates yet. There had been no flurry of campaign ads. Continuing with the Time Article:

As recently as last month, before Reagan's New Hampshire victory, White House advisers looked forward with relish to the possibility of Reagan as their target. No longer. Says one Georgian: "People like what Reagan's saying about the economy, about foreign policy. He's offering simple solutions and that's what people want." Adds another White House aide: "To dismiss Ronald Reagan as a right-wing nut would be a very serious error—for us or anybody else."

California Pollster Mervin Field, who just last fall felt that Reagan's nomination would lead to a Republican disaster, has changed his mind. Says Field: "I just don't see how you could dispassionately and factually argue that it will be a Carter victory. It's going to be a very close race."

Unlike the situation in 1964, when Democratic Incumbent Lyndon Johnson was still very popular, Reagan confronts a Democratic President who, after a temporary surge in the national polls because of the crises in Iran and Afghanistan, is now plagued by declining job ratings. The odds are that by fall, Carter will be trying to defend his management of an economy with double-digit inflation and rising unemployment, gasoline prices of upwards of $2 per gal. and a reduced budget that offends many of the traditional Democratic-constituencies.

Sound familiar? Doesn't that sound like where we are now? Therefore, don't lose heart. Don't believe the Karl Rove/Bill Kristol/Dick Morris nonsense. A real conservative can win. People want simple answers because there really are some simple, but perhaps difficult to stomach for some, solutions. Don't believe that we have to pick a squish like Huntsman or a chameleon like Romney to win. We have seen that before and failed. Don't lose heart.

Conservative candidates, you need to be able to articulate the message that this is just not an economic crisis, but a crisis of the American spirit. That the American spirit itself, the spirit of entrepeneurship, innovation, and pride is being hampered by an out of control government. You need to be able to articulate that America is and can maintain being the best nation in the world. Articulate the problem, but present positive solutions. For, we know, despite the efforts of Time and others, that it IS POSSIBLE. Reagan did win. And people will go for truth over a shell game every time. Check out this last excerpt from the TIME piece:

Yankelovich believes that the American electorate has already shown a predisposition to replace Carter. This was manifested in the early eagerness for a Kennedy candidacy, which proved so disappointing when it became a reality. The brief bubbling of support for a Ford candidacy was part of the same feeling. If popular unhappiness with domestic and world problems finally comes to rest at Carter's doorstep, voters may begin to see all sorts of previously invisible virtues in Ronald Reagan.

Not only does Reagan face a weakened President, he also presents a less frightening prospect than the apparently more reckless Goldwater. Says TIME Washington Bureau Chief Robert Ajemian: "To many people, Reagan is reassuring, almost parental. He is too fatalistic and too modest to be a crusader."

So far in this campaign, Reagan has done little to damage that image. Says Florida National Committeewoman Paula Hawkins, a John Connally supporter: "He has been dignified, professional under stress. He responds well when he gets punched. He's gentlemanly, answers with humor and with enough acid to let you know he has heard."

There is evidence that voters other than Republican archconservatives are beginning to support Reagan. In last week's Illinois primary, according to one poll, 40% of the Republican vote was cast by Democratic and Independent crossovers, and roughly 30% of these went to Reagan.

Just as the Republican Party is closer to Reagan's point of view than it was eight or even four years ago, the country as a whole has moved right. Reagan's reach for the center will be shorter now than before. Says Pollster Yankelovich: "Reagan should not assume this is a mandate to define a right-wing program for the country. Rather it is a chance to define a new policy for the center."

But to say that Reagan can be elected is by no means to say that he will be. On the contrary, he looks very much the underdog. Some party operatives are plainly unhappy with his selection. In Massachusetts, where both Bush and Anderson defeated Reagan, party leaders are not yet reconciled to the Reagan candidacy. Says one: "There's a vacuum of leadership at the national level; and what appears to be the Republican Party's response? A 69-year-old man who has done virtually nothing for years. We're at the same stage the Whigs were. There's no choice."

Don't believe those like Rove, who had no relationship to Reagan during the revolution, or the others who now hold up Reagan but then snubbed him. They were wrong and he was right. Read the whole article and use it as inspiration. We don't have to settle, folks. As Mr. Reagan himself said, we have it in our power to begin the world over again, a line from Paine's Common Sense that applied to Paine, to Reagan, and to us now.

So, Bachmann, you have a shot. Perry, so do you. Palin, as much as they want to destroy you, you too can still win. Find that determined but positive message and stay true to those principles. It can be done. It has been done. It needs to be done again. We cannot survive another Obama term.

OH-08: Dem's Poll Shows What We Already Know -- Also Ran Has NO CHANCE

I'd like to point out to Cox Newspaper's liberal scribe Mikey Pitman that that liberal poll he was gushing for is out and it shows pretty much what we expected: Justin Cousoulle is an Also Ran.

It looks like the people from this "organization" made the calls and did the analysis and wrote the questions. This is in no way a professional poll. There is no information about the sample. You don't think they have a bias here do you?

All that aside, let's take a look at the numbers anyway...


74% of those polled didn't even know who the hell Justin was...  Oh, yeah, he's the liberals great hope for this election.  Somebody ought to tell Justin that NOBODY in OH-08 watches MSNBS let alone that blowhard Ed Schultz.

HALF of those polled said they need more information just to determine whether or not Justin was a viable candidate.  A plurality (34%) already know that he isn't.

But the biggest news of this poll shows that Boehner wins 30.4% to 19.6% in a poll where Boehner has an Unfavorable Rating of 59% while 94% of these people are definitely going to be voting!

Oh, and Carl Weiser of the Enquirer, don't think I missed seeing you gush on this poll too...

RWN Conservative Blogger Poll: 2012

John Hawkins has released his latest Conservative Blogger Poll.  This poll captured the opinions of 72 bloggers on the least and favorite 2010 GOP candidate for President of the United States.  For the record, I voted Newt Gingrich in question 1 and Mitch Daniels in question 2.

PPP on DE and Moderates vs. Conservatives in GOP

PPP talks about the Senate Primary in Delaware and lets loose a piece of analysis that describes what so many politicos get exactly WRONG:

If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore.

This is so wrong I can't stand it. 

If moderates lose their grip on the GOP in Delaware or anywhere else, they are still welcome.  "Moderates" just have to go along to get along much like they demanded conservatives to do when the moderates were running the show.

Unlike the radical professional Left, the groundswell of support for conservatism in the Republican party is a genuine grassroots movement that have had it with BOTH parties and the way they have screwed the country over at every opportunity.

SIDEBAR: Notice you never hear about how awful it is when the "progressives" hijack the Democratic Party and threw out the "moderates" on the left side of the aisle.

Granted, PPP is probably talking about the situation in Delaware specifically; but it is exactly this sort of thinking that causes the kind of over-reach that we've seen from both parties here in Ohio.

And, yes, I see that PPP says "may or may not" but the implication is clear as day: PPP and radical professional Left believe that the conservatives will drive the "moderates" out of the party.  They HOPE that is the case because that is the only way THEY can maintain grip on power anywhere.

I think they are misunderestimating the power of the Tea Party movement.  We'll see...

About That Dispatch Poll

BizzyBlog has the best analysis I've seen yet...

A few points that I would especially like to concur with...

Yost would be doing as well against Cordray in the AG race and Mike DeWine wouldn't be a drag on the ticket.

Seth Morgan would be doing at least as well as Yost.  Maybe even better.

Mike DeWine for Retirement seems to still be likely...

Kasich and Portman have no reason to be cocky...

One must wonder how much better Mandel would be doing if he had help from his "friends" at the Ohio RINOvich Party

Husted is in trouble.  LAMEPAC knows it...and still blowing it.

So, the Establishment Wins...and Conservative Principles Lose...What do We Learn?

OK, here are a few things to take away from last night's primary.

1. The Ohio Tea Party Groups are not ready for prime time. Look, if turnout was only in the low 20s percentage, which I hear it was, then there are two explanations for why Seth Morgan did not fare better. A) the tea partiers maintained independence and just cast a primary vote on the issues; or B)the tea party movement in Ohio is not as strong as advertised or feared by the Chairman and his capos. In all likelihood, it is option B. It is not enough to show up to a rally and hang out. You have to choose a side and vote on it.

2. Endorsements by county parties don't matter unless you get out and work it with your constituencies. You cannot produce slate cards with every candidate and just put a star next to the endorsed one. You have to get out and tell why you are supporting someone.

3. The ORP can never again claim to be fiscally conservative. The sheer amount of money spent on State Central Committee candidates should infuriate anyone. I mean, we are talking about state central committee, for heaven's sake! Kay Reynolds alone sent my household six different mailers with her featured dominantly. Which begs the question...where was my John Becker mailer? Guess the ORP doesn't like him very much.

4. There is no conservative party in the state of Ohio anymore. In Ohio, Glenn Beck is right. There is little difference in the arrogant attitudes of those in power in the state parties.

5. Me--yep, I won my race for central committee in my county. And you better believe Hell's comin' with me!

OK, so now we pick some winners and losers:
Winners:
1. Kevin DeWine, Jason Mauk, et. al.--These shlubs who alienated the hardest working people in the party get to keep their jobs. Of course, they spent your hard earned money to do it.

2. Mike DeWine--His type of political expediency wins the day.

Losers:
1. Conservative voters in Ohio--you don't really have a choice anymore. You get slightly unethical or full goose bozo. Take your pick. Also, you need to quit talking the talk and walk the walk. Don't be afraid of the bozos in Columbus. They work for you, darnit!
2. The Ohio Republican Party--You spent craploads of cash in a PRIMARY! For State Central Committee People! And for an Auditor Candidate! Nice Job, Kev! Don't expect the voters to be willing to pony up for more cashola come the fall and the fun from Cordray and Co. Also, all those hardworking people who were fired up, now don't care a damn about you. Also, you grabbed alienation from the jaws of a winning coalition. You have alienated the tea partiers, who while not ready for prime time, at least they work very hard. Good luck getting small donors to give to your coffers. Better hope Cousin Mikey has very deep pockets.
3. John Kasich, Mary Taylor, Josh Mandel--These folks have to live with sponge spines like Yost and Husted on the ticket, as well as the gun grabber in NRA clothing, Mike DeWine. They also have to live with not a whole lot of help from the party, because the party spent all its cash protecting its rubber stamp central committee (John Becker excluded). If I were Kasich, Taylor, or Mandel, I would be p.o.ed about the spending the party levied in this past primary.
4. Me--I actually have to try and defend the nonsense the morons in Columbus have done recently and encourage, make that beg, people to trust the Republican party in Ohio again. Well, at least we have a good and honorable group in Brown County, for the most part.

So, Where Do We Go From Here?

Well, let me remind the ORP of something. The minutemen and tea partiers of another era did not win the initial victories in battle either. However, who won the war? Like Washington and the Continentals, we must stand firm and continue to defend and push back against the nuanced b.s. garbage of Kevin and Co., and continue to defend our values and take back our party.

I congratulate Dave Yost on his victory. I hope Dave realizes it was never personal in the sense I didn't think Dave wouldn't do a good job. It was personal in the sense that he sold out the voters for the mover and shakers, and the harumphers in the party.

So, you ask, what am I going to do? Well, let me first clarify that there is a difference between voting for someone and supporting them, in my opinion. Support to me means more because it is going out and working the phones, polls, walking the miles, etc. So, with that in mind:

I will support John Kasich and Mary Taylor.
I will support Rob Portman.
I will support Jean Schmidt.
I will support Danny Bubp.
I will support Josh Mandel (oh you better believe I will!)
I will support Rick Eagan.
I will support Doug Green.

I will vote for Dave Yost. I might have to send him a support brace for his spine, but I will vote for him.
I will vote for Jon Husted. I will get nauseated and throw up from the stench, but I will vote for him.
I will....for Mike DeWine. Yeah, not so sure about that one right now, I must say.

Last night was a battle for the heart and soul of the Ohio Republican Party. Unfortunately, the angels didn't win. Unfortunately, the country club blue bloods won and the working conservatives lost. However, as Rome wasn't built in a day, as Britain wasn't beaten in one battle, so too it goes for the state of things in Ohio.

Still Not Buying It

I've watched my good friend Kyle Sisk tease this poll over the last few days and while he has given us a little more information in this post than previous mentions, what data he does present only asks more questions rather than answer the old ones.

First of all, the only link in Kyle's piece is to some pollster's bio.  Like that is going to convince me of something.  Come on, Kyle, you can do better than that.

Meanwhile, over on Twitter, our good friend phoning it in from Virginia is trying to say that a poll (the same poll?  I dunno, he doesn't link to anybody or anything.  He could be pulling these numbers out of the air for all I know...) has Republicans backing DeWine 96 - 3 90 - 3 (he had to issue a correction).  Has ANY Republican, let alone an Ohio Republican EVER had numbers that looked like that in Ohio and have something not be wrong with the poll?  I can't think of one...  if this is a poll of 600 likely voters, then all the Republicans were at Beef O'Brady's in Greene County.....

Even Kevin Holtsberry has been sucked in by this crazy talk...

Where is the poll???  Public Opinion Strategies did this poll, so where is it?  somebody provide a link that gives us all the details.  I got the impression that this wasn't even a poll about this race, so what was it about?  What were the target demographics?  What was the purpose of the poll?  Who put the poll in the field?  And who paid for it?

Seriously, my fellow bloggers, we should be a little more skeptical of some of the stuff that we get from campaign sources.

One last point, one poll does not a trend make.  Even if these numbers have some basis in a reality somewhere outside of Greene County, you simply can not tout these numbers as gospel until there is a trend.  There are reasons why instead of going through the Rasmussen polls line by line, I create charts that plot trends...

UPDATE:  Here is a piece that djtablesauce left out of his tweets courtesy of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

DeWine campaign consultant Mark Weaver pointed to  DeWine's 90-3 margin in the poll with voters who called themselves "strong Republicans" as evidence that the GOP base is happy with his candidate.

Let's hear what DeWine's numbers with "strong conservatives" is rather than "strong Republicans"...we all know where the "establishment" "strong" "Republicans" stand on the issue of Mike DeWine...
 My gut still  tells me that this is a VERY bogus poll...

POLL ANALYSIS: Rasmussen's 2010 Ohio US Senate Race

Here is their analysis, but I want to dig a little deeper in to the guts of this thing...

Before we get to the Senate stuff, let's set the ground work...

Obama Job Approval

33% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
40% Strongly disapprove
2% Not sure

How's that Hope and Change working out for you, Ohio?

Favor/Oppose Healthcare Plan?

Strongly favor 27%
Somewhat favor 17%
Somewhat oppose 7%
Strongly oppose 45%
Not sure 4%

Can you hear me now, Senator Brown?

Strickland Approval

Strongly approve 15%
Somewhat approve 32%
Somewhat disapprove 24%
Strongly disapprove 26%
Not sure 3%

Now...on with the show...

Portman does fairly well winning against both Democratic opponents, but I would like to see something more solid in regards to the Republican primary.

If there is one spot that I think Portman can be viewed as weak it is with the 65+ demographic where Lee Fisher actually beats him. It sure would be nice if Team Portman would address some current issues like the health care bill so we could have some idea what Rob actually thinks on the subject. It isn't as much of a risk as they probably think it is to come out against it as the 65+ crowd is getting wind of just how badly AARP has been screwing them.

Portman wins the Republicans, obviously, but when you add in the fact that he also wins the Independents, this is looking like some very good news for Team Portman. Portman also wins every category of voter that makes over $20,000, so he haw broad support across all classes of Ohioans.

All in all, I'd have to say that while this sounds like great news for Team Portman, there is still a LONG way to go and there are still an aawful lot of people who still don't know who he is or what he stands for. The moderates (going for Fisher and Brunner) and the Independents (going for Portman) are the people to watch as once these two groups realize that they are the same people and have to come to terms with picking their candidate for real, then the fun begins.

UPDATE: ThirdBasePolitics has more analysis of this poll that you don't want to miss.

Obama Losing Seniors on Health Care Debacle

In the comments to this RedState post about Obama's polling numbers, a guy calling himself Kyle-MI asked a very interesting question that I thought I would check out...

Anybody have access to the crosstabs in any of these polls? I would be interested to see the age breakdown. I wonder how much the leadership of the AARP is in tune with their members. Even though they are already covered by a government program - Medicare & Medicaid - the Dems seem to be trying to sell Obamacare to the elderly. I wonder how effective they are.

Since I am a Rasmussen subscriber, I checked out the crosstabs on the latest Health Care poll and was very surprised by what I found in the 65+ demographic...

Obama is getting HAMMERED by the AARP crowd... On the question: Favor/Oppose healthcare plan proposed by Obama and Democrats, the 65+ group breaks down like this...

Strongly Favor - 22%
Somewhat Favor - 16%
Somewhat Oppose - 12%
Strongly Oppose - 45%
Not Sure - 5%

57% of LIKELY VOTERS over the age of 65 oppose the plan. Only 38% like it at all and there isn't enough undecideds on this issue to put a serious enough dent in it.

With numbers like these, no wonder Republicans have been winning the generic ballot for the last few weeks...this issue is killing one of the advantages that Democrats really had a strangle hold on over the years. Once you get Democrats actually talking about their plans for us, people start to realize that the Democrats are not interested in helping the little guy. It becomes much more apparent that the Demcorats are only interested in increasing their power and control over our daily lives. You can't win elections on that platform in America...

UPDATE: A couple of more numbers from that same question...

Under the Employment demographics, I'll note that 55% (42% strongly/13% somewhat) of retired likely voters oppose this health care plan.

Under the Married demographics, 61% (46%strongly/15% somewhat)of married likely voters are opposed.

Under Children at Home demographic, 53% (37% strongly/16% somewhat) of likely voters with children at home oppose...

Under Ideology demographic, 53% (28% strongly/25% somewhat) of Moderates oppose...

POLL: Kasich, Portman and Slots Are Winners

Release:

Wenzel Strategies survey shows Ohioans favor Strickland proposal for slots at Ohio horse tracks, but incumbent governor does not appear to profit politically from the idea

Kasich leads incumbent Ted Strickland 44%-35%, with 21% undecided

Portman leads Fisher 39%-33% in U.S. Senate race with 27% undecided

Portman leads Jennifer Brunner 43%-31% with 26% undecided

COLUMBUS, Ohio - As Ohio's unemployment rate continues to rise and lawmakers wrangle over how to backfill a gaping state budget deficit, registered voters across Ohio are showing signs they might welcome new leadership at the highest level of the state, a new Wenzel Strategies statewide survey shows.

The telephone poll, conducted June 23-26, 2009, included 824 registered voters statewide and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The survey was conducted by Wenzel Strategies and was not commissioned by a third party.

The poll shows Republican John Kasich, a former congressman from the Columbus area who announced his campaign for governor a month ago, leads Democrat incumbent Ted Strickland, by a 44% to 35%, with a big chunk of Ohioans - 21% - yet undecided. Kasich, who has at times spurned his own party leaders in honing a reputation for independence, wins 59% support among independent voters, compared to only 19% of independents who favor Strickland. Nearly one-quarter of independents were undecided on the question, which is not surprising given the prospective contest is more than 15 months away.

Strickland does well among Democrats, and Kasich does well among Republicans, the new poll shows.

Among those who voted for Obama last fall, Strickland wins 66%, while Kasich wins 79% support among those who voted for McCain last fall. Strickland leads by a 44% to 36% margin among men, while Kasich leads by a wide margin among women.

Ohioans Favor Video Slots

While lawmakers continue to battle over the idea in Columbus, the new Wenzel Strategies poll shows that a majority of Ohioans favor Governor Strickland's proposal to place video slot machines at horseracing tracks around the state to help raise money for the state budget. While 51% favored the proposal, 40% opposed it, the poll shows. Another 9% were undecided on the questions. Strickland recently aired the proposal as a way to help fill a state budget gap, but said he favored the proposal only as a last resort and did not necessarily like having to propose it.

Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to support the proposal. Among Dems, 66% favored it, compared to just 32% of Republicans who supported it. Among independent voters across the state, 54% favored the idea.

However, Ohioans were split on the question of whether they supported the idea of state-approved gambling in general, not counting the existing state lottery games. While 44% said they opposed gambling beyond lotteries, 42% said they approve of such laws.

It is interesting to note, however, that while Ohioans favor the governor's proposal to put slots at race tracks, more than three-quarters of those surveyed said that it would make either no difference in who they would support for governor next year, or it would make them less likely to support Strickland. While 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Strickland because of his gambling plan, just 17% said it would make them more likely to support him next year.

U.S. Senate Contests

In prospective political contests for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Cleveland's George Voinovich, Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher, the sitting lieutenant governor, by a 39% to 33% margin statewide. As was the case in the Kasich-Strickland horserace, Portman leads substantially on his strength among independent voters. There are also large blocs of undecided voters in many demographic groups.

When Portman, a well-known former congressman from the Cincinnati area who also served in the Bush administration, is pitted against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Portman leads by a 43% to 31% margin. Both candidates in this prospective contest do well among their own party supporters, with Portman winning among independent voters.

Pollster Fritz Wenzel: "All of these races suggest that Ohioans are uncertain over political questions, the economy, and the state budget. It is not surprising that, this far out from the elections, there are large numbers of undecided voters, but Ohioans seem unsure in part about larger questions of where the nation may be headed. Ohio Democrats are winning only 60% to 65% support from those voters who supported President Obama just half a year ago. This is not a good sign for them, but it is not yet a bad sign, either - because these voters have not moved over to support the Republican candidate. Instead, they have merely moved into the undecided column.

"If Obama, the nation at large and especially the economy perform well over the next year, Ohio Democrats could reasonably expect to enjoy support from his coattails like many across the state did seven months ago. But the uncertainty of the moment appears to be benefiting Republicans."

More Bad News for Obama

The American people are starting to realize that the president ought to accept some blame for the state of the economy. Rasmussen reports that the number of Americans who blame Obama's policies is up to 39%. While a majority still blame Bush, the trend there is falling and those folks are starting to blame Obama for the what the Demcoratic Congress had been doing during the last months of the Bush administration.

But here is the one that will hurt Obama: 60% of the American people trust their own economic judgement over Obama's. There goes the argument that obama has a mandate for statism...

And this bit is very telling:

Younger voters are more likely than their elders to blame the current economic situation on the recession that began under Bush. The majority of middle income voters place more of the blame on Obama’s policies.

Kids, pay attention: Statist policies are not good for the economy. It didn't work for Bush and it won't work for Obama.

At some point, the PR genius who has so far managed to craft Obama's image so well is going to run out of magic dust and when that happens, watch the floor drop on all kinds of approval numbers...

Obama Goes Negative (Approval That Is)

Check out this great news from Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 32% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That’s the President’s lowest rating to date and the first time the Presidential Approval Index has fallen below zero for Obama.

Interesting that Rasmussen STILL leads with the positive even though the real story is a shift in the American public's mood towards our president has gone negative.



Could it be that folks are starting to realize that this guy is not the answer to all of their problems? Could it be that the American people are sick of this president blaming the last for everything while offering no real solutions that actually work? Could it be the weakness that this president has shown towards North Korea and Iran? Could it be that the American people realize that socialism and/or statism is the slippery slope to Hell on Earth? Could it be all of these things???

Ohio Poll on Economy of Buckeye State

The OHIO POLL (PDF) shows that 51% of Ohioans think that our state's economy is "poor" with another 42% rating it "fair." Only 7% say that the economy in the Buckeye State is "good" and less than 1% find it to be "excellent." Now, I'm not a statistician, but those numbers don't sound too good to me...of course, that won't stop some people from claiming that we're number one!

Voinovich Update

Our senior senator has been rather busy lately and I want to bring everybody up to speed on the latest...

Let's start with ethanol... Senator Voinovich has signed a letter written by South Dakota senator John Thune requesting more research in to the use of ethanol blends higher than E10. Personally, I am not a fan of burning up food for fuel when we still have plenty of oil left...but I am not a sitting senior senator either.

I've seen a couple of versions of this AP story, but we'll go with the Mansfield News Journal, on Voinovich's announcement of a government awarded 20-year lease for a VA clinic in the suburbs of Cleveland. No word on the price tag for this during a financial crisis, but I have been assured that this is a heck-of-a-lot cheaper than full-blown hospitals. It should also be noted that preventative medicine is always cheaper than surgeries down the road; long, extended hospital stays; etc., etc., etc... As with all of these stories involving federal giveaways, no reporter bothered to ask what Grandpa's grandkids might think of having to pay for all of this stuff... Don't get me wrong, I'm all for veterans and clinics, but I was under the impression that we were in a financial crisis and needed to curb spending.

Voinovich was quoted in the Dayton Daily News as saying the following regarding DHL:

Voinovich, meanwhile, said the delegation will "continue to be tireless in our efforts to ensure that state and local governments have the full federal resources needed to cope with this economic disaster."

"I'm sure all of us will urge the next administration to make extraordinary efforts to deal with what may be one of the worst economic dislocations that we've faced as a nation," he said.

Why not propose a Bailout, senator? They seem to be all the rage this year!

If you read the source story for the last entry, you know that Senator Voinovich is on a Congressional Delegation (CODEL) trip to Europe. Here is an OPENERS piece on the subject of the trip and it includes this tidbit:

U.S. Sen. George Voinovich and his wife, Janet, left Friday night on a week-long trip to Austria, England and France. A fancy trip at taxpayer expense? Or a wonky trip that would bore the daylights out of many?

Well, yes.

Which got me thinking that maybe Members of Congress ought not be jet-setting around Europe with their wives during a financial crisis, so I asked Team Voinovich about it and here is what spokesman Chris Paulitz had to say:

"Mrs. Voinovich is part of the official delegation, just as the first lady accompanies the president on some trips. The delegation is taking a military plane and there was plenty of free seats. And, obviously, the hotel costs are the same whether she's there or not as the senator has his room already."

So I'm thinking that since she is "part of the official delegation" Mrs. Voinovich must be an expert in hydro-electric power stations, nuclear fuel processing facilities, oxide fuel rod assembly operations, OPEC, International Atomic Energy Agency, banking issues in Europe or the Russia vs. Georgia conflict. It's certainly possible...I didn't ask. (Cue email in 3...2...1.....)

For the record, that last item was all about toughing up Team Voinovich for their 2010 run at re-election. I still think it is a bad idea, but if they are going to put us through it, I might as well do my part to make them as ready as they can be for a hostile press and a partisan electoral system in Ohio.

...Which reminds me: SurveyUSA has Voinovich at 51% approval rating as of October 23rd. That's up from 43% in September. Wonder which set of numbers is closer to reality... Probably the 46% he got in August...

Side note on that last item: Voinovich has higher approval numbers than socialist senator Sherrod Brown. Yeah, I don't know how that happened either... I might have to start paying attention to this race a lit bit more now that Our Fate in '08 has been decided...

Don't Believe the Polls Update: Rendell Worried About PA, Internals Show Much Tighter Race

Ed Rendell is scared. Really scared. This...is CNN:

Sen. John McCain making a new push in his state, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) "has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate -- as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton -- return to campaign in Pennsylvania,"

Ed Rendell is scared. He is seeing what Murtha calling his constituents "rednecks" and "racists" has done. He is worried about bitter clingers.

Don't believe the hype. This race is close. The internals are showing that. SOB's own Dave Stacy has the scoop:

Alternate Title #1: Why the Democrats are still very nervous.

Alternate title #2: Why John McCain is touring PA today.

RCP is THE must-have resource for any election and this one is no different. While I've been keeping a sharp eye on the state polling, it's just about time to take a very close look at the state polling over and above the national numbers. And they yield some very interesting data about the state of the race.

These are all states that John McCain must win, there are about seven. These were all Bush states in 2004 and it's already looking like a sure bet he's going to lose smaller Bush states Iowa and NM, He can afford those, he can't afford any of these really. Here's the numbers. From Last week to this week, this is all John McCain's perspective, so -2 is a state he's losing by two.


State today's margin (last week's margin) movement

FL -2 (-5) +3
OH -2.8 (-3.4) + 0.6
NV -2.9 (-2.3) + 0.6
NC -1.5 (-1) - 0.5
MO -2.2 (-2.7) - 0.5
CO -5 (-5.5) - 0.5
VA -8 (-6.5) - 1.5

Since these are all red states, it goes without saying that this moves a horrendous map into merely bad, but hey an improvements an improvement!

So it looks like he's pulling FL, OH back from the brink (both states have recent polling showing him in the lead). NV and NC, and MO he is within the margin of error. CO and VA he's losing badly and they even look like they might be pulling away.

But then we look at Pennsylvania.

PA -11 (-13.4) +2

McCain/Palin have continued to pour money time and resources into PA despite a three week period where it looked like he was losing it by double digits, leaving everyone scratching their heads. But morning call has shown some movement to McCain by 3 points, and Susquehanna had a single digit loss for him, which pulls PA into where VA is now.

And then there was this today:


Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

Sean Smith, who is heading Obama's Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.

McCain has his own internals too. And if they are telling him the same thing, well that would go a long way to explaining why McCain was in PA today and why both he and Sarah Palin have spent a lot of time this week. Basically if McCain can get the states that are within the MOE, plus steal PA, then he doesn't need CO or VA
And a win is a win. I doubt this is their preferred strategy, I think they would like to see the numbers get better in VA and CO as those are historically better states than PA for Republicans (duh). But look at this as plan B and it makes sense

Don't believe the Riefenstahl media....

Schmidt Internal Poll Shows Huge Lead

Schmidt Poll - 10-02-2008 - Upload a Document to Scribd

Isn't it funny how each candidate got a poll that they really liked recently? Honestly, I think this race is Schmidt's to lose and she won't because Krikorian takes votes from Wulsin.

Crites Continues to Gain in Race for AG

Release:

Columbus – A new poll issued by Ohio NBC news affiliates shows that Republican candidate Mike Crites is rapidly closing the gap in the race for Ohio Attorney General. The poll shows Crites down by only eight points.

“Ohioans want an Attorney General with the leadership experience to repair the damage caused by Marc Dann and his enablers,” Crites said. “My record shows that I’m the only candidate with that kind of leadership experience.”

A Quinnipiac poll issued in mid-August had Crites trailing opponent Richard Cordray by 18 points. A September 15 poll (also commissioned by Ohio NBC news affiliates) showed down by 11 points. This latest poll has Crites down by only eight.

Mike Crites has been aggressively campaigning to get out his message of leadership and integrity. In the last two weeks, Crites has been traveling the state, garnering news coverage nearly every day, and also started a statewide TV campaign. His ads are running on TV in every major media market in Ohio (click here to watch the ad).

Crites said the poll numbers not only prove that Ohio voters are responding to his message but also demonstrate Cordray’s vulnerability. Crites is a 21-year career prosecutor and a newcomer to statewide elective politics. His opponent, current State Treasurer Richard Cordray, has run eight times for six different offices in the past 18 years, including three statewide offices.

Crites recalled a 1994 Gallup poll in which incumbent Democrat Attorney General Lee Fisher held a 17-point lead over Republican challenger Betty Montgomery in her first bid for statewide office. The poll was conducted just over a month before the election. Montgomery went on to win the race in a stunning upset.

“Voters won’t be fooled by a career politician,” Crites said. “Fundraising continues to be a top priority for us, but Betty Montgomery showed us you can be outspent by your opponent and still win,” Crites said.

Crites has a 21-year record of public service as a federal, state, and local prosecutor. He was appointed in 1986 to serve as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Ohio by then-President Ronald Reagan, a position he held until 1993. In this role he was responsible for all federal law enforcement in 48 of 88 Ohio counties. A decorated U.S. Navy Captain, Crites was inducted into the Ohio Veterans Hall of Fame and is a veteran of the Vietnam War. At the peak of his Navy career he helped manage 7,300 personnel.

McCain Numbers Looking Good

Both of these polls are behind the Rasmussen Reports subscription wall, but I wanted to point out that John Sidney McCain is starting to pull ahead on some key indicators.

I alluded to these numbers yesterday, but I wanted to revisit the Better Leader and the Personal Values Reflect Your Own numbers. On the subject of who is the better leader, 46% say McCain, 38% Obama. On the Personal Values Closest to Own: McCain 46%, Obama 39%.

Some new data for today includes numbers on National Security and the Economy. On the issue of national security, likely voters are supporting McCain over Obama 52% to 41%. On the issue of the economy, McCain pulls a 48% to 42% lead.

That economy number is significant because Democrats have been enjoying an advantage over Republicans on that issue for awhile.

All of that is prelude to this revelation: When you include the leaners, McCain leads Obama 47% to 46%. The race is effectively tied during the Democrat convention. If you had told me it was going to be like this, even a month ago, I'd have been shocked. Clearly Biden didn't help Obama, but I do think that McCain's Veepstakes winner has the potential to help him. Plus, the GOP convention is next week, so that should help a little as well.

Rasmussen on 'Celebrity' Ad

I think this is very telling of the state of the race and should give Republicans a lot of hope that Team McCain can sustain this kind of momentum going in to November. Rasmussen reports that an overwhelming percentage of the American people think that the Celebrity ad was not racist, but that is not the really big news. They also report that Obama's "dollar bill' response was racist.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the nation’s voters say they’ve seen news coverage of the McCain campaign commercial that includes images of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton and suggests that Barack Obama is a celebrity just like them. Of those, just 22% say the ad was racist while 63% say it was not.

However, Obama’s comment that his Republican opponent will try to scare people because Obama does not look like all the other presidents on dollar bills was seen as racist by 53%. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree.

It also seems clear that Team Obama realized that they made a gaffe because they seem to be backing off the racist rhetoric instead going with the approach that Team McCain is "cynical." Will Obama's followers do the same? Or will they stick with the tired language that belittles true racism? The answer to those questions just might determine who captures the political center that is so vital in American politics these days...

Unaffiliated voters, by a five-to-one margin, said the McCain ad was not racist. By a much narrower 50% to 38% margin, unaffiliateds viewed Obama’s comment as racist.