THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.Well, this is coming from the CIA...you know, the organization that brought us the "slam dunk" of WMDs in Iraq. But I'd be interested in reaction from our European friends...
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".
Mark's Remarks
Well, I do think some of the labor laws will in fact be restrictive, and according to many estimates, the "graying" of Europe's population and negative population growth could be a cause for alarm. I tend to take a skeptical view, much as I did of the supposed surplus so many lefties talk about the US losing. You know, it wasn't even real money. It was projected money from a 12 year study. Few people acknowledge that. So, I tend to take this with a grain of salt, especially coming from the CIA, as Matt said.
However, we all know Europe's turbulent history, like WWI, WWII, and even the Cold War. Also, as former Soviet Satellites with weaker economies are let in, this could prove to be a drag on the total economy. Just some food for thought.
