CINCINNATI (AP) Republican Jean Schmidt has narrowly defeated Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett to win a special congressional election in Ohio.I'll update this post in a few with some post-game analysis... Reader's Digest version: this was an ugly win, but a win none-the-less.
The Post-Game Analysis
This race was too close. The question is why. There are several reasons that I can think of: (1) The Democrats were not energized for the primary, but were well organized for the general election - this has to do with Paul Hackett being the candidate; (2) The Republicans had a nasty primary in which there were too many candidates and way too much energy - the Republicans divided themselves during the primary (this has implications in at least one county, more on this in a bit); (3) The Ohio GOP is in trouble - I don't know how much support Schmidt got from the Ohio GOP, but it wasn't enough and that's probably a good thing seeing as the Democrats were already trying to tie her to CoinGate and Bob Taft. RedState has similar analysis here. Even more thorough analysis from everyone's favorite BizzyBlogger.The final numbers for the race:
Schmidt: 59132 (52%)
Hackett: 55151 (48%)
For this to have been considered a good win for Schmidt, she needed another 5 points...she didn't get it, so expect another contentious primary challenge when the time comes.
We can't dismiss what Hackett did for Democrats in this state: he gave them so hope. Expect to see him again real soon. Expect him to lose again if he runs in OH2 and by a bigger margin.
There was about a 25% turnout race for this special election. It is August. This ain't the Big Show, that's for sure.
Lessons for the Democrats:
1) Be who you are. Don't run ads that make you look like Republicans. That's just cheap and Hackett was a much better candidate than that.
2) Knock off the Bush-bashing. That election is over. All this does is remind the majority that voted for him that you are wrong.
3) Avoid the fever swamp. If Hackett really were a "moderate", he might have pulled it off. He isn't, so he didn't.
Lessons for the Republicans:
1) It is a conservative district, don't run a moderate.
2) 15-person primaries are not the way to go. All that did was divide the base up in to factions that the Demcorats were able to divide further.
3) Don't encourage voters to "stay home." That is just stupid.
Let's talk about Brown County, specifically, for a moment. Hackett took the county, but that's not the real story. The real story is why. The Brown County Republican Party failed to endorse a candidate in the primary. They failed to organize sufficiently for Jean Schmidt after the primary. They failed to lead. Yeah, yeah, Jean Schmidt ran a nasty campaign against Tom Niehaus. I suppose that means you'd rather have a Paul Hackett in Washington instead of a Republican. Yeah, yeah, Schmidt is an "establishment" type candidate (and I have my own issues with those kinds of candidates), but again, would you rather have a Paul Hackett representing your interests or a Republican? Brown County Republicans failed us. They failed to show up. They failed to take a position when taking a position mattered. And then they failed to do something about it. If you have conservative values, you have to support conservative candidates, it is just that simple...
Now, let's talk to the Ohio GOP: It is time to get your crap together. It is time to put together a platform for the betterment of Ohio. It i time for a Contract with Ohio or some other sort of blueprint that Republicans in this state can get a clue from...because waiting for the candidates to guide policy is what got us in this mess in the first place. Here is another hint: stop stalling on CoinGate...get out in front of it...and get rid of those who were responsible. Now. The sooner the Ohio GOP does this, the better for all of us.
This race was too close. And that should wake a few people up in Columbus...not Washington, but Columbus.
10:35AM Update
Nobody likes a sore loser, Paul...don't go any further with this:Fox 19 just reported that the Hackett camp is claiming that there have been Voting Irregularities in Clermont County. IN about 91 precincts they have to hand count the ballots because of the humidity here.It didn't work for John Edwards and John Kerry...it won't work for you. You had a pretty good night, Paul...leave it at that.
