Ohio, the GOP, and Some Very Smart Guys

Here are some excerpts from an interview of Mark Steyn, Michael Barone, and Fred Barnes by Hugh Hewitt (also known to WMD fans as Blew Blewitt) via Radioblogger:

Michael Barone (MB):...they're (the GOP - MATT) in particular trouble in Hugh, your home state of Ohio, where they've been in power in the legislature and the governorship for sixteen years. That's longer than any party's been in power in Ohio since before the Civil War. And they've raised taxes and done other unrepublican things like that, and have gotten themselves in trouble on some scandals. So yeah, I think the stage is set for minor Democratic gains.
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Let's talk now about Ohio, Michael DeWine, Mark Steyn. Sort of a classic Senator: invisible most of the year until he screws up with the Gang of 14, or voting against ANWAR. The Democrats, as Michael Barone pointed out, are poised for blood in Ohio. Do you think Mike DeWine has got what it takes to be a sort of modern successful politician in a battleground state?

MS (Mark Steyn): No, I think the problem with the Senate as a whole is that it's a kind of lagging indicator. So often, you have people in position who are there, like Lincoln Chafee because of his father, or for example, New Hampshire's all Republican delegation, which doesn't quite fit the profile of that state. And it would be interesting to see how well either Judd Gregg or John Sununu would do against serious Democrat challenges. And I think Mike DeWine's in that situation, too, that suddenly, when your state comes into play, when you're in serious times, when you've got issues that it's tough to make a political call on, and actually require you to show some principle and backbone, that's when these guys are found wanting. I would...I know you're much more of a party man than I am, but I would certainly be in favor, just as a cautionary tale, Pour l'encourager les autres, if some of these people paid a price for what's happened in the last couple of years.

HH (Blew Blewitt): No, I am with Disraeli. I am a party man. But I...nevertheless, I worry about DeWine. Michael Barone, what about DeWine and Conrad Burns? Are either of them seriously vulnerable?

MB: I think you've got to be worried about that. I mean, a year ago, all of us who analyze these races pretty much assumed that Mike DeWine was not going to have serious problems, that the Democrats were going to have trouble coming up with a candidate. It looks like they've got possibly serious challengers, this Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett, who ran an unusually close race in the 2nd Congressional district, special election, and/or Congressman Sherrod Brown from Northeastern Ohio, and the problems that the Ohio Republican Party had. So that looks like a real race. DeWine is going to have to make his case that he's done things for the voters that they're currently not aware of, if he's going to win.
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HH: Fred Barnes, do the state houses for us. Ken Blackwell, African-American Secretary of State in Ohio is a promising candidate. Pawlenty has got to fight off a strong challenge up in Minnesota. Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, they're all up for grabs. Pennsylvania's got Rendell and Lynne Swann. And of course, Arnold's in very iffy situation...how do you see the state houses breaking in 2006?

FB (Fred Barnes): Well, I think in most of those states you mentioned, I'd rather be the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate, although I suspect Arnold will wind up winning. You may know about it more than I do in California, but he's a great campaigner. In fact, campaigning for himself, I think he'll be even better than campaigning for referenda, which obviously didn't pass. It's hard to believe that...I mean, the Democrats and the unions can spend quite the way they did over these referenda a few weeks ago. When you get to Ohio, look. I know Ken Blackwell. He's a great candidate. I think he's going to be running in the wrong year. It's just going to be tough for a Republican to win in Ohio, to win a governorship there, because that's where most of the scandals have been, at the state level, at the governor's level, and may not affect Mike DeWine as much as Ken Blackwell running for governor.

Barone is absolutely right about the condition of the Ohio GOP. Our friends in Columbus have been having a VERY difficult time understanding this analysis, but it is true. And I've been saying it for at least a year and a half...

Mark Steyn is the leading commentator on the right these days...when he says he wouldn't mind seeing Mike DeWine pay a price for what he's done, you know DeWine has seriously wandered off the reservation. Steyn is talking about a punishment during the general election, I'd like to see him beat in the primary...Bill Pierce is just the man for that job.

Blew Blewitt is a party man...tell us something new Hugh...

Barone's analysis of the DeWine problem is interesting. And right on target. A year ago, nobody would have thought that DeWine was in as much trouble as he is. My point of contention with Barone is that he thinks DeWine is going to have to explain himself in the general election...I think he's going to have to spin a big story for the primary.

I think Fred Barnes has no idea what he's talking about when it comes to Ken Blackwell's situation. Fred is discounting that Blackwell has successfully distanced himself from the likes of Bob Taft, Jim Petro, Tom Noe, and Betty Montgomery. We know who is responsibile for the scandals in this state and it ain't Ken Blackwell. I think there is a whole lot of people in the punditry class that are going to be surprised at how well Ken Blackwell performs in this race.

DISCLOSURE: Matt is the blog administrator for Pierce for Senate, a primary challenger of Mike DeWine.

Mark's Remarks

I totally discount what Hugh says when it comes to Ohio. He is a party hack and like the folks in Columbus for the GOP, has not a clue of what is going on out in the hinterlands, no matter what b.s. smokescreen the folks at State of the Union (the Ohio GOP snooze blog) blow at us. Hacks there and like Blew Blewitt have not a clue when it comes to what is going on in Ohio.

Now, Steyn is right on in saying DeWine will be punished. Like Matt, I am hoping that is in the primary, where I hope he will be slapped around like his sad son Pat DeWine in the 2nd District Primary. Pierce is a solid candidate, no matter what the state central committeemen like Becker may say.

Now, as for Fred Barnes, typically, I agree with what he has to say. However, I believe he has fallen into the trap of not looking closely at the attitudes in the Buckeye State. While the GOP as a whole has tanked, Ken Blackwell has remained strong. While Betty Montgomery and Petro have remained close to the Governor, Ken Blackwell has positioned himself as outside the corruption of Householder, Taft, and Co. in the Ohio GOP. However, he has not sunk to lunacy, like Brinkman the Coastie. Therefore, I think Fred is wrong in this case.

However, the analysis of Barone, Steyn, and Barnes was intriguing and thought provoking. Blew's carping and party gladhandling just made me want to puke.

DISCLOSURE: I am NOT the blog administrator for Bill Pierce, but I did have to add the disclosure not for Matt as he was too lazy to do so when I called him on it.