I'm a fan of the Rick Moran Show on Wide Awakes Radio. He's one of the few who really gets it. And he has become a pessimist on Iraq:Simply put, the reason I have come to this conclusion now is that the enemies of Iraqi democracy have established a clear upper hand in the country and it is uncertain at best whether the situation can be retrieved at this point.Rick is a serious guy with serious views. I take him at his word. Having listened to his show for awhile now, I can assure you that he understands the war on terror and isn't an anti-Bush moonbat. He is one of a growing number of conservative blogger pundits who are questioning the tenacity of this administration's approach to the war in Iraq.
And the reason to write about it is equally simple; to join a growing chorus of conservatives who are becoming very critical of our involvement and try and break through the spin and myopia of the Administration which is making the situation worse by pretending that things are getting better or are not as bad as we think they are.
But perhaps the most damning record of stupidity and spin comes via the book Cobra II by Michael R. Gordon and General (Ret.) Bernard E. Trainor. Much of the book is a heartbreaking recitation of erroneous assumptions, overly optimistic assessments, and finally, a risible refusal to admit mistakes and change course.I don't know anything about Gordon; but Trainor, I recall hearing, has had some issues that makes his analysis somewhat tainted (don't hold me to this just yet - I need to confirm what I remember). Rick points out some facts that I don't think anyone can refute and then slams administration officials like Donald Rumsfeld for their so-called spin:
Here’s Rumsfeld earlier this month:Of course, if you look at this map, you will actually see what Rummy is talking about.Q: Is the country closer to a civil war?The “14 other provinces” may not have the violence that Baghdad has but Rumsfeld never mentions the lawlessness that necessitates a constant military presence in the streets. Not does he mention that 75% of the Iraqi people live in the three most violent provinces.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Oh, I don’t know. You know, I thought about that last night, and just musing over the words, the phrase, and what constitutes it. If you think of our Civil War, this is really very different. If you think of civil wars in other countries, this is really quite different. There is—there is a good deal of violence in Baghdad and two or three other provinces, and yet in 14 other provinces there’s very little violence or numbers of incidents. So it’s a—it’s a highly concentrated thing. It clearly is being stimulated by people who would like to have what could be characterized as a civil war and win it, but I’m not going to be the one to decide if, when or at all.
Similar sentiments have been echoed by the President, albeit with a little less nonchalance. What this adds up to is an Administration unwilling or unable to face up to its past blunders and apply the necessary lessons in order to try and win through to victory.
A word about the population. Rick asserts that 75% of Iraq's population lives in the three most violent provinces. Iraq's population is 26,783,383 (July 2006 est. - CIA World Fact Book). That may be so, 20,087,537 don't live in the colored sections of this map. The bulk of those people probably live in Al Anbar province...the trouble in that province appears to be around Baghdad. The CIA World Factbook describes Iraq as being about twice the size of Idaho. So Rick is essentially associating Helena, Montana's crime statistics with that of Boise, Idaho... (map)
Don't get me wrong. I do think we need to take a look at what we've done in Iraq and make some changes that will ensure success over there. Namely, I don't think we are fighting this war in the most effective way. Counter-insurgency is not handled in the same way as a tank battle.
The real question is whether or not this is a civil war. I don't think so. A civil war is a prolonged conflict between two or more groups from the same state that consumes a significant portion of that state. That just doesn't describe what the data shows...
I do think things are still going slowly in Iraq. Too slowly. However, until you see Iraq solving its political problems with violence instead of democracy, I don't think we can term the war as unwinnable.
