Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader John Boehner are scheduled to hold an early afternoon press conference to "throw down the gauntlet," in the words of one House GOP leadership source, over the House Democrats' plan to "slow-bleed" the Iraq war to an end. The GOP leaders are aiming to capitalize on a perceived shift in momentum in their direction following Rep. John Murtha's detailed lay-out of his plan to choke off funding for the surge, but which is increasingly seen as a broader strategy meant to bring about a quick end to the war in Iraq. The vote in the House today is tentatively scheduled for sometime between 2:00 and 5:00 pm.The press conference mentioned in the first paragraph was to be held at about 1:30 today. I'll post details as soon as I hear more...
Asked about the number of GOP defections on that House vote, a House leadership source told the Bulletin, "The more our members and their members hear their true intentions, the less likely they are to vote for this non-binding resolution." The leadership source added, "Predictions of 50-60 defections will likely be proven false." Republican lobbying against the measure over the last couple of days has largely consisted of widely distributing quotes from Democratic lawmakers, particularly Murtha, who said of his anti-surge strategy, "They won't be able to continue. They won't be able to do the deployment. They won't have the equipment, they don't have the training and they won't be able to do the work. There's no question in my mind. We have analyzed this and we have come to the conclusion that it can't be done." Repeated quotes from Democrats indicating that today's vote is but the first step in a longer strategy is convincing some Republicans who don't support the surge to reconsider whether to vote for the Democratic bill today, out of concern that this very quickly heads to a series of votes to end the war altogether, which they do not necessarily support.
Helping to unite Republicans is a sense that the emerging Democratic strategy ensures defeat. Boehner wrote in an op-ed in today's Chicago Tribune, "I can't guarantee you that that [the Administration's] plan will work. I hope it does, and Republicans have put forward complementary bills aimed at helping it succeed. But I can guarantee you this: If we cut off funding for our troops and abandon Iraq, as many supporters of this non-binding resolution want to do, the consequences of our failure will be catastrophic."
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called a surprise Saturday session to try and move the non-binding resolution forward in the Senate. Republican leaders this morning are confident that they can defend their position once again, and cloture will not be invoked. Sensing that Reid may have wanted to build off the momentum of a House vote, there is now a sense among Senate Republicans that this could backfire. Press accounts this week had the number of GOP defectors in the House as high as 60. A number significantly short of that could change the story to defections among the defectors as a result of Democratic moves.
One Senate GOP source told the Bulletin that this week's CR strategy was also forged with an eye toward denying Reid any sort of momentum that he could use to reinvigorate the Iraq debate. According to the Senate GOP source, the thinking among GOP leaders this week is the CR would only become a big media story if the Republicans tried to fight it, a fight they would likely lose on votes, in the media, and with conservative supporters should the bill be amended to add more spending as a result. Allowing it to pass quietly, it was thought, would produce a largely ho-hum reaction in the media that Reid could not use to his advantage. Whether Reid can use it to his advantage remains to be seen, but part of the strategy has panned out. Uncontested passage of the CR was treated by the media as a very small, routine, one-day story.
(HT: BizzyBlog)
