Sabrina Easton files this on OPENERS:Ohio will lose two congressional seats when the House of Representatives is reapportioned after the 2010 Census, National Journal magazine predicts in its current issue. The magazine says the redistribution of House of Representative seats will likely result in Republican pickups around the country, although the degree will hinge on whether Ohio is controlled by Republicans or Democrats in 2010.All of this is good news for the national Republicans who have been badly battered as of late, but this projection for Ohio is a real concern. I don't yet have a sense for what I would predict will happen in the state races yet, but this report certainly puts things into perspective. We have some work to do in Ohio...
Using the non-partisan data-gathering firm Polidata's projections of population gains and losses in 2010, the magazine projects that Texas will gain four congressional seats, Arizona and Florida will both gain two seats, and Georgia, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and Washington will each gain one seat.
The article, excerpted from the forthcoming "Almanac of American Politics 2008," says the partisan lineup in Congress will depend on whether Democrats or Republicans control Ohio's legislature.
Although Republicans currently control both chambers of Ohio's legislature, the magazine foresees "partisan redistricting with a vengeance" if Democrats win Ohio's House and Senate in 2010. Ohio now has 18 congressional seats. Republicans hold 11 of them and Democrats have seven. The magazine predicts a Democrat-controlled redistricting in Ohio would eliminate four Republican seats and add two Democratic seats.
If Ohio's current power balance remains intact in 2010, National Journal predicts one seat held by Democrats, and one held by Republicans will be eliminated. If Republicans retain one chamber, it says redistricting will focus on incumbent protection.
On a nationwide basis, the magazine anticipates that redrawing congressional boundaries will create a dozen new Republican districts, two new Democratic districts and three new toss-ups, if Republicans maintain control of Ohio's legislature. Under that scenario, nine Republican districts and eight Democratic districts would be eliminated nationwide.
"If Democrats control Ohio, redistricting will likely produce a dozen new Republican districts, four new Democratic districts and three toss-ups," it says. "A dozen old Republican districts and seven Democratic districts would be eliminated."
Any way you slice it, Republicans will pick up a few seats.
That Ohio is projected to lose two seats is further a reflection on what is expected from Gov Strickland. If Strickland were capable of turning Ohio around in time, population might not bleed off enough to lose both seats; but I don't think anybody actually expects the governor to succeed. As unemployment continues to rise in this state, expect the population to drop.
Note to the rank and file Ohio GOP: It is time to cowboy up and get cracking...
