'08 GOP for POTUS Polling Notes

I've got two polls that I want to take a look at in this post. The first is the latest Gallup poll that is our snapshot of the nation's Republicans; and the second is the Quinny poll of Ohio Republicans.

Quoth the Gallup release:

stable in each of the last three Gallup Polls, with support for the leading candidates varying by not more than a percentage point. The latest survey, conducted Aug. 3-5, 2007, shows Rudy Giuliani as the established frontrunner, with still-unannounced candidate Fred Thompson solidifying his second place standing, John McCain solidly in third, Mitt Romney in fourth, and the remaining candidates at 2% or less support nationwide. The results differ very little when looking at Republicans versus Republican-leaning independents, and also among those who say they are extremely likely to vote in the Republican primary or caucus in their state next year.

In the poll, Giuliani draws the support of 33% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, followed by Thompson at 21%, McCain at 16% ,and Romney at 8%. These results exclude support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has not ruled out a bid but also has not taken steps toward a formal candidacy like his fellow unannounced candidate Thompson. Prior to this poll, Gallup had regularly reported results including Gingrich, who is supported by 10% of Republicans when he is included in the ballot.

In the tracking, we see that very little has changed over the last month. Rudy's (33%) and Fred's (21%) numbers have pretty much solidified. Rudy picked up a point that Romney lost along the way and McCain has entrenched himself in third.

Two things to consider when looking at these numbers is that Fred still hasn't announced (he is likely to do so in early September) and Gingrich has been dropped from the poll. Newt, who had 10% in this poll at one point, has managed to dsicredit the war on terror as "phony" and called the entire Republican field "pygmies".

At this point, I'd have to declare Rudy as the frontrunner but we're still keeping our eyes focused on the September horizon when Fred announces. The big loser in this poll is Romney, who really should have been able to secure third from McCain with the whole immigration fiasco, but he couldn't pull it off. Mitt may have bucket o' cash, but most of the rank and file wither don't know who he is or don't like him.

Let's move on to the Quinny and the situation here in Ohio:

In a Republican primary race, Giuliani gets 29 percent, with 11 percent each for Thompson and McCain and 8 percent each for Romney and Gingrich.

Rudy is the only guy in the Republican field who comes close to beating Hillary in the Great State of Ohio. And all he does is tie her at this point...

"55 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion." That is a key stat that the Fredheads have got to do something about. I'd really like to see Fred come to Ohio and get the word out himself. Everybody knows Rudy here, and if Fred expects to compete, he's going to have to stop testing the waters and jump on in. It will take more than just announcing to make up the 10+ points that Fred is behind Rudy.

As bad as it is for Fred, the situation is actually worse for Mitt Romney in Ohio as "60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion." Those are numbes that should tell you that it is time to fire whoever, if anybody, is running the Ohio operation...

It looks as if Ohio is still Rudy's to lose...