We're closing in on victory in Iraq. (And, if Ray Robison is correct, perhaps at points east as well.) The Jihadis are nearing collapse across the country. With the exception of a few Ba'athist holdouts, the Sunni population is coming over in ever-greater numbers.
Scarcely a day goes by without another Al-Queda kingpin being bagged by the Coalition. (Last week it was a financier with no less than a hundred million to play with. That would pay for a lot of car bombs.)
The Jihadis have shown no ability to put together any kind of workable counterstrategy. According to Iraq the Model, the Jihadis have begun targeting remote villages (as predicted here last month), a practice that can only increase their isolation and accelerate their death spiral.
One of the most common methods of fumbling a victory is to allow the enemy one last great blow before the end. This is what occurred in the Ardennes in the last months of WWII. The Allied advance slowed to a halt for the winter of 1944, the troops taking up bivouacs in central Belgium. The commanders, above all Omar Bradley, were not at all worried. The Germans were whipped. They had left their equipment and tens of thousands of their best troops behind in France. Besides, the Ardennes forest was far too dense to allow an army to maneuver through it.
Only George Patton, far to the south facing the Palatinate, recalled that the Ardennes was the exact route taken by Guderian's tanks during the 1940 conquest of France. Inspecting a map of the area, Patten mused, "Brad could get in trouble up there in short order."
Scarcely had the words left his lips than German armored forces, spearheaded by SS units, broke through Allied lines. The American units facing them had been at the front only a few days. They collapsed and ran for it. Many GIs froze in the woods. Large numbers were taken prisoner. Some were gunned down by the SS after being captured. Only ferocious resistance by a few veteran units - above all the 101st Airborne in the town of Bastogne - allowed the Allies to hold on long enough for Patton to dash north and cut off the advancing German columns. It required a month of fighting to restore the lines, at the cost of over 60,000 casualties.
Endgame in Iraq
Iraq, of course, is not that kind of war. And Petraeus and Odierno are certainly closer to Patton than Bradley. But the Long War being what it is, and the Jihadis being the kind of enemy they are, it would be worth our while to make a very close examination of the board before the endgame is played out.
Consider the Jihadis. They opened up this conflict through a surprise blow designed as much to make an impression as to cause damage. With two strikes at the very centers of American power, the Jihadis succeeded where the Soviets, Chinese, and North Koreans failed, despite all their bombers and ICBMs. The Jihadis have attempted to duplicate or even surpass these strikes since, with no real success, though they have struck serious blows in London, Madrid, and Bali.
Go read the whole thing....
