MEMORANDUMBarry's analysis seems pretty solid to me. I'd still like to see a poll done that is balanced by number of likely voters rather than geographically, but I think we can get something of a snapshot of where we stand anyway.
TO: CONGRESSWOMAN JEAN SCHMIDT
FROM: BARRY BENNETT
RE: JANUARY POLLING RESULTS
DATE: January 14, 2008
I am happy to report that results of the opinion poll you commissioned last Thursday, January 10th. The poll was conducted by the Tarrance Group, a leading GOP pollster whose clients include President Bush, Senator Voinovich, and Ambassador Portman.
They surveyed 300 likely registered Republican voters from a geographically balanced sample of the Second Congressional District.
The poll showed no movement from polling last fall. Your name identification remains statistically universal (97%) and your approval rating remains in the 60’s which is quite strong compared to either President Bush (40’s) or either of your opponents. Your approval rating climbs to the mid 70’s with Conservative voters, voters outside of Hamilton County, and Straight Ticket Voters.
The purpose of the poll was to measure the race today with six weeks to go before the Primary. Per your instructions no information was provided to the participants other than the names of the candidates. The results were very similar to what we have seen in the past.2008 Primary Results
Mr. Brinkman remains a fringe player in the contest gathering only 9 percent in the ballot contest. He is largely unknown outside of his House District where it is fair to say he doesn’t enjoy your level of support. The voting groups that he performs best among are Un-Employed Men (15%) and Self Described Moderates (20%).
Former Commissioner Heimlich scores a comparably better 31 percent. His support has fallen slightly since last fall when he announced his candidacy. His best performing voter groups are Hamilton County Voters (40%) and Pro-Choice Voters (43%). Mr. Heimlich’s poorest group of support comes from Self Described Conservative Voters (22%) and Non Hamilton County Voters (14%).Hamilton County Voters (43 Percent of the District) Non Hamilton County Voters (57 Percent of the District)
Your support has increased slightly since our last survey. You continue to exhibit strong numbers with Straight Ticket Voters (62%) and Strong Conservatives (66%). Your lowest numbers are Hamilton County Voters (37%) where you still manage to beat Mr. Heimlich with our turnout model.Among Straight Ticket Voters (21 Percent of Sample) Among Very Conservative Voters ( 38% of District )
If the election were held today, given the low turnout we expect for the Presidential Primary you would easily win the Primary by some 25 to 30 percentage points.
With just six weeks before the Primary, you are very well positioned to easily defeat your opponents. That coupled with your monetary advantage or parity, your opponents will have no choice but to run extremely negative advertising similar to your last Primary.
Congratulations on your hard work paying off. It seems the GOP base deeply appreciates your efforts on their behalf.
The Hamilton County focus was interesting; but unless we have a better accounting of the other counties specifically, I'm not real sure what value that information has beyond what a fraction of 300 likely voters in Hamilton County happen to think on that particular day. And even those numbers aren't all that encouraging for Brinkman or Heimlich, if you ask me. There is no strategy that works using Hamilton County as your only base of significant support.
