The following is presented with the usual caveats that polls really aren't worth much. I have been assured that this is not a push poll, but the demographics nor the questions asked were not released with this statement (which is pretty typical for an internal poll actually). At any rate, here goes:Cincinnati, Ohio – Today the Campaign Committee of Congresswoman Jean Schmidt released their latest polling data in the upcoming March 4th GOP Primary. The data reveals that Schmidt goes into the final six weeks of the campaign with a massive lead over her primary rivals.This is interesting news when you factor in the news that COAST has decided to go with their founder, Tom Brinkman, over their flunky, Phil Heimlich.
Among all likely registered voters Schmidt defeats Heimlich and Brinkman by a wide
margin.
Schmidt 52%
Heimlich 31%
Brinkman 9%
“Obviously we are extremely pleased with the widespread support Jean is receiving from all across the district. With just a few weeks to go it is shaping up to be a massive win,” Bruce Pfaff, Schmidt Campaign Spokesman, said.
The poll was conducted by The Tarrance Group a national leader in GOP polling. It was conducted at the end of last week and the tabulation of the results is now finished.
Even better news for Schmidt was that among Self Described Conservatives her lead swells even further.
Schmidt 66%
Heimlich 22%
Brinkman 6%
“These results are quite gratifying but we will take nothing for granted. Congresswoman Schmidt has instructed us to run a campaign like we are 40 points behind instead of ahead. This is a big and diverse district and we plan to run aggressively in every corner of the district,” Pfaff added.
The Second Congressional District is approximately one third Hamilton County and the remaining two-thirds containing Warren, Clermont, Brown, Adams, Pike, and half of Scioto Counties.
The Dean of Cincinnati has that story:
COAST, a group affiliated with Phil Heimlich in the past, has decided to endorse his opponent Tom Brinkman in the race for Ohio’s 2nd congressional district. This is a huge loss to for the Heimlich campaign, as another segment of his base has decided that Phil is not the best candidate for the job. Jason Gloyd, who was recently selected as the new chair of COAST, serves as Tom Brinkman’s campaign manager. As such, he abstained from the vote, which was an otherwise unanimous decision.If the numbers from Team Schmidt are right, then it can be said that COAST represents about 6% of the district... What I want to know is what the 3% who are expressing a preference for Brinkman that aren't "self-described conservatives" are thinking.
I will agree with the Dean that this is horrible news for Phil Heimlich, who I think has to realize at some point that while he may have more support than his buddy Brinkman; neither has enough support to win. If he wants to do the Republican Party a favor -- and let's face it, his career in politics -- he'd bow out gracefully and endorse Schmidt. If for no other reason than to see the COASTers heads explode. Heck, I might even pay to see that.
