CQ Politics:Democratic Rep. Zack Space , an Ohio freshman, appears to be in much stronger shape in his bid for re-election than could have been anticipated 15 months ago, when he entered Congress as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the strongly anti-Republican campaign year of 2006.Okay...that's the set-up, let's get to the meat of it:
The improved outlook for Space has prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on the race in southeastern Ohio’s 18th District to Democrat Favored from Leans Democratic.
The ratings change means that the Ohio 18 contest appears less competitive, giving Space a strong edge, while still acknowledging the possibility that the Republicans could rebound before November and even score an upset. The rating is subject to change at any time.
The typically strong conservative leanings of 18th District voters — President Bush took 57 percent of the vote there when he ran for re-election in 2004 — had Space perched precariously near the top of the GOP’s target list when this election cycle began.I will agree with the article in saying that it is unlikely that the NRCC will pitch in an help out significantly. I asked a few of my RNC/NRCC contacts about who they favored in the primary and on the record they expressed no preference. Off the record, it sure wasn't Fred Dailey...
But the Republicans still are struggling to recover from the damage done by the downfall of once-popular Republican Rep. Bob Ney, who dropped his bid for a seventh House term well into the 2006 campaign and then pled guilty to federal corruption charges related to his ties to convicted influencing-peddling lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Furthermore, the Republican nominated in the March 4 primary to challenge Space — Fred Dailey, a former state agriculture director — has a relatively low political profile, and a dangerously low amount of money in his campaign treasury. Updated campaign finance reports that both candidates recently filed with the Federal Election Commission show Dailey had just $36,000 left in his campaign account when April began, compared to the nearly $1 million in cash on hand reported by Space.
That is one of the most lopsided fundraising margins among the 30 districts that Democrats wrested from Republican control in the 2006 election. Ohio’s 18th has multiple media markets, and it is a difficult district to traverse and build name identification.
I hope I am wrong, but I am not hopeful that we will be able to recapture this seat; and I fear that this is our one and only chance to take it back for quite some time.
