Thursday, June 05, 2008

Really Crappy OH-02 Poll Available...Sorta

Let's start with the release that was forwarded to me from one of WMD's many politically-connected readers:
CINCINNATI, OH – June 5, 2008 -- American Political Polling (APP) has just conducted a survey of 750 randomly selected registered voters from Ohio’s Second Congressional District. The survey was taken over a three-day period ending June 2 and represents the counties of the second district (Hamilton, Clermont, Warren, Brown, Pike, Scioto and Adams).

Summary data from this poll is being made available to media outlets in southwest Ohio free of charge, while complete internal polling statistics are available for a fee. APP’s next poll will focus on the First Congressional District race and will be conducted in the next few weeks.

Poll Summary & Analysis

The majority of District 2 voters believe that George Bush is doing a poor job of leading the country. Barack Obama has a slight lead over John McCain and 57.2% of voters feel the economy is the number 1 issue facing the country today. Underscoring that point, 52.3% of the district feels that Ohio, which is one of 11 states in a confirmed recession, is headed in the wrong direction.

In the Congressional race, the Republican candidate, Jean Schmidt, has a solid base of 23.8% registered Republicans district wide, yet as the incumbent running for her third term, if the election were held today Schmidt would only receive 24.2% of the vote.

The Democrat candidate, Victoria Wulsin, has a solid base of 22.2% registered Democrats district wide. If the election were held today Wulsin would receive 29.8% of the vote.

The Independent candidate, David Krikorian, enters the race with 13.4% of the vote and a pool of 32.5% of undecided voters. Krikorian polled as high as 26.5% in Pike and 16.7% in Brown.

Our survey indicates that this race is wide open and is a good fit for an Independent candidate. In a 3-way race the three candidates need at least 34% to win and five months is a long time.

The correlation of President George Bush’s low approval rating of 40% and incumbent Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt’s low approval rating of 23% may be an indicator of what Republicans have to deal with this November. Schmidt's job rating is low for a sitting Representative.

Survey Responses

1. Overall, 50.5% of district voters say President George Bush is doing poor job of leading the country.
2. If the election were held today, 34.4% say they would vote for Democrat Barack Obama.
3. If the election were held today, 32.9% say they would vote for Republican John McCain.
4. Generally speaking, 52.3% of voters in OH2 say that Ohio is heading in the wrong direction.
5. Generally speaking the number 1 issue is the economy at 57.2%
6. Republican Jean Schmidt’s job approval rating is 23%
7. Overall district voters are supportive of an Independent choice for Congress
8. If the Congressional election were held today 32.5% of Voters are Undecided, 29.8% would vote Democrat, 24.2% Republican, and 13.4% would vote Independent

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 % with a 95% confidence interval.

Please contact American Political Polling if you are interested in purchasing complete polling data.

About American Political Polling
American Political Polling is a privately-held company headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio. The company’s objective is to become a leading source of independent political polling data for media outlets and political campaigns in Ohio. APP has a 20 seat in-house call center equipped with the latest in call center dialing technology which allows the company to reach a greater number of survey participants resulting in more accurate polling data.

APP is also available to conduct high quality public opinion polls for individual campaigns and corporate clients. For detailed pricing information, please contact John DiMauro at 513/317-2265.
Well, this sounds like a bogus poll to me; so I wrote in to Mr. DiMauro:
Mr. DiMauro,

I'm a blogger covering OH-02 and have heard about your poll and have a few questions about the results and the methodology.

1) Would you be willing to release the questions asked?

2) Would you be willing to release the demographics of the respondents?

3) Would you be willing to state who commissioned the poll?

Since your website has been online for about a month, I'm wondering just how relaible your data is and it has been suggested by at least one of my readers that perhaps this poll (and maybe your firm?) is an extension the Krikorian campaign.

Speaking of your website, your splash page (which is the only page that is accessible) claims that: "In addition to our regularly published political polling data, our website includes political commentary and election news." none of which is available.

So forgive me if I am skeptical and I look forward to your response.

Contributing Editor, "Weapons of Mass Discussion"
And his response, which we just received, is here:

Thank you for your interest in our poll and in American Political Polling. I hope to answer your questions adequately and give you the information you would like.

Our next poll, which we will begin conducting on Monday, will focus on the First Congressional District. APP has no connection to any candidate or campaign, but we recognize the interesting position that Southwest Ohio and the State of Ohio play in the national election.

Although there is plenty of bitterness and acrimony among various local and national candidates, I hope that APP can provide truly independent data, as our website states. To that end, our survey was truly random and the respondents were proportionately weighted across the entire second district. The poll was not commissioned by any candidate or campaign, rather APP saw an opportunity to conduct a relevant and credible poll about a race in our own back yard. We are not interested in the results, only in the accuracy of those results.

I have and will release the questions to legitimate news outlets that are interested reporting on the data collected and in viewing the wording and manner in which the questions were asked. Complete polling data is available for a fee. Our poll was conducted from May 28 through June 2, 2008.

As far as our website, we continue to improve it and hope to have all of the features available soon. Thank you, again, for your interest. Please feel free to contact me at if you have any further questions.

I suppose Mr. DiMauro doesn't think that the blogosphere is a "legitimate" news outlet. At least, I might come to that conclusion if I hadn't noticed that he copied Jerid Kurtz, formerly of the uber-liberal Buckeye State Blog, and Bill Sloat, the unofficial voice of the Democratic Party 527 Media in Ohio on the original release. Not to mention pop-sensation Justin Jeffre...and a number of the lunatics from COAST.

Maybe one of those "legitimate" news outlets will be so kind as to publish the entire poll so we can make a determination as to just how relevant it is. My gut instinct says, "Not much..."

UPDATE 1: Liberal blog Swing State Project is not buying it...
These numbers just seem too hard to believe.
You can say that again...

UPDATE 2: As expected, Jeff "Dann's the Man" Coryell is taking the bait hook, line, and sinker... Dream on, little doggie...

UPDATE 3: The genuises who took over for Jerid at the BS Blog are also believing the hype.