This is fantastic news because what it means is that John Boccieri's "do nothing" energy message is falling flat. While not a knockout blow, this is a setback to Boccieri and his DC and Youngstown supporters.Poll shows Schuring Leading in 16th Congressional Race
(CANTON) - Sen. Kirk Schuring's 16th Congressional District campaign is in a strong position heading toward the fall, leading Youngstown Democrat John Boccieri by six points, a new Tarrance Group poll shows.
"I'm very pleased to see our campaign's strength in the 16th Congressional District," Sen. Kirk Schuring said. "The people of this district know that Washington is broken and that's why our common sense conservative message is beginning to resonate throughout this district. Voters want a Congressman who is from the district, who understands the 16th District, who is a problem solver and who knows that to affect real change to our pocketbooks we need to drill for oil, create jobs and make healthcare more affordable. My opponent refuses to allow Americans to drill for oil so that we can pay lower prices at the gas pump. Today's poll is evidence that the people here in the 16th Congressional District want someone to represent them who will stand up for their concerns and work to fix the crucial problems we face."
SEE BELOW FOR OFFICIAL POLLING MEMORANDUM
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MEMORANDUM
TO: Schuring for Congress
The National Republican Congressional Committee
FROM: Brian Tringali
B.J. Martino
DATE: July 10th, 2008
RE: Summary Findings from a Survey of Likely Voter Attitudes in the 16th Congressional District of Ohio
______________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present you with the findings from a survey of likely voter attitudes in Ohio's 16th CD. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of N=400 registered "likely" voters. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 4.9% in 19 of 20 cases. The surveys were conducted on July 8-9, 2008.
Executive Summary
Kirk Schuring, the Republican candidate for Congress in Ohio's 16th District, currently holds a 6-point ballot lead over the Democrat John Boccieri.
The ballot test in this recent survey of likely voters in the district reveals that 40% of the electorate say they would vote for Kirk Schuring if the election was held today, while 34% say they would vote for his opponent.
The Congressional Ballot Test
Schuring 40%
Boccieri 34%
At the same time, another 26% of voters remain undecided.
The numbers show Schuring is well positioned to win this Congressional District in the Fall.
Even better news is that I am also hearing that Team Boccieri has also done some internal polling that has similar results. I've heard that Team Boccieri is down double digits in Stark County alone! Why didn't Team Boccieri release the results of their internal poll? I surmise that that they didn't want to let the cat out of the bag that they are getting beat...and I suspect that the trend is about to get better for Team Schuring the closer we get to Election Day.
UPDATE: In the comments here, Modern Esquire posits a fair point...without the demographics, these numbers really don't tell the whole the story. And after taking a second look at the numbers that we do have, the key number is the undecideds. As I said, this poll isn't a knockout punch, but it is very positive news for Team Schuring. Team Boccieri would need to get the bulk of the 26% undecideds to go his way with a message that isn't likely to resonate in the district. Is it possible? Sure...especially since we don't have the demographics to look at here...but it does seem a rather daunting task.
