Ask WMD: "How Long Would It Take to Get Oil From a New Source?"

Previously on WMD, our liberal commenters have been asking -- and I have been trying to get an answer -- about how long it would take to get oil to market if we started drilling today.

Well, I got a new source today...and, I think, the answer to the question. The American Petroleum Institute (API) "is the only national trade association that represents all aspects of America's oil and natural gas industry. Our 400 corporate members, from the largest major oil company to the smallest of independents, come from all segments of the industry. They are producers, refiners, suppliers, pipeline operators and marine transporters, as well as service and supply companies that support all segments of the industry."

The answer to the question, according to my new friends at API, is somewhat complicated and requires a little background...

The amount of time required depends on several factors:

Is the oil onshore or offshore? If it’s offshore and in deep water, it is likely to take longer because very sophisticated equipment will have to be designed and constructed to produce the oil.

How much information is available on the geology of the region? If little information exists, new seismic studies will be required to develop a map of the underground rock formations before any drilling can be started. Of course, this assumes that oil is found. Oil doesn’t exist everywhere.

Is the new energy prospect in a frontier or remote area where no infrastructure exists? If so, it will take time to a drilling permit, obtain a drilling rig, get the right-of-ways to build a pipeline that can carry the oil to a refinery for processing, etc.

If the well is close to existing pipelines, roads, etc., it could be producing in a few months, depending on the time required to obtain drilling permits, environmental studies, etc.

The answer -- depending on some of the factors listed above -- varies on the location of the well. Under the right conditions, oil could be ready within a "year or so" but the seven to ten years number represents what I would call the worst case scenarios.

UPDATE: I asked specifically about the 20 years or more scenario and this is the response that I received:

I have not heard anyone talk about oil production taking longer than 7 to ten years, so I can’t imagine a scenario that would take 20 years.

To pre-empt the critics in our audience, I trust industry-types over government-types...