Tuesday, August 26, 2008

No Bounce for Obama/Biden; McCain Pulls Even

There are still a few days left of the big bash in Danver, but Team Obama can't be real happy with the way the numbers are looking so far. With the kickoff of the Democratic national convention and the announcement of Slow Joe Biden as the running mate, one might expect that there would be an uptick in the numbers. Rasmussen Reports has the race deadlocked at 44% apiece (46% apiece with leaners). Team McCain has come all the way back and made this thing a real race.

Biden was no help... I don't think he hurts Obama, but he doesn't help him. Here is how our friends at the polling company framed it:
Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.
That sounds about right to me. For all the bluster coming from Denver about how unified their party is, Team Obama has a real problem on his hands and its name is Clinton...

Another potential problem for Obama if the trend continues is favorability. McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53%. These numbers might also represent some heartburn for Team Obama:
Better Leader: 46% say McCain, 38% Obama….Personal Values Closest to Own: McCain 46% Obama 39%
These numbers may not seem like much...and they aren't...but this is a race that may be won by inches, not yards.

Meanwhile, John Sidney McCain will be back in Ohio on Friday -- supposedly to announce his running mate -- in Dayton and the WMD Crew will be there.