Friday, September 25, 2009

POLL ANALYSIS: Rasmussen's 2010 Ohio US Senate Race

Here is their analysis, but I want to dig a little deeper in to the guts of this thing...

Before we get to the Senate stuff, let's set the ground work...
Obama Job Approval

33% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
40% Strongly disapprove

2% Not sure
How's that Hope and Change working out for you, Ohio?
Favor/Oppose Healthcare Plan?

Strongly favor 27%
Somewhat favor 17%
Somewhat oppose 7%
Strongly oppose 45%

Not sure 4%
Can you hear me now, Senator Brown?
Strickland Approval

Strongly approve 15%
Somewhat approve 32%
Somewhat disapprove 24%
Strongly disapprove 26%

Not sure 3%

Now...on with the show...

Portman does fairly well winning against both Democratic opponents, but I would like to see something more solid in regards to the Republican primary.

If there is one spot that I think Portman can be viewed as weak it is with the 65+ demographic where Lee Fisher actually beats him. It sure would be nice if Team Portman would address some current issues like the health care bill so we could have some idea what Rob actually thinks on the subject. It isn't as much of a risk as they probably think it is to come out against it as the 65+ crowd is getting wind of just how badly AARP has been screwing them.

Portman wins the Republicans, obviously, but when you add in the fact that he also wins the Independents, this is looking like some very good news for Team Portman. Portman also wins every category of voter that makes over $20,000, so he haw broad support across all classes of Ohioans.

All in all, I'd have to say that while this sounds like great news for Team Portman, there is still a LONG way to go and there are still an aawful lot of people who still don't know who he is or what he stands for. The moderates (going for Fisher and Brunner) and the Independents (going for Portman) are the people to watch as once these two groups realize that they are the same people and have to come to terms with picking their candidate for real, then the fun begins.

UPDATE: ThirdBasePolitics has more analysis of this poll that you don't want to miss.