Wednesday, December 02, 2009

OMG! If Stimulus Employment Projections So Far Off, What About Healthcare Spending Projections?

The White House has said that Obamacare will be deficit neutral. There have been various projections for the spending of money for the various bills in Congress under the blanket of Obamacare. However, one has to greatly question the validity or sanity of believing such numbers, given their horrendous estimates of what would happen with the stimulus in terms of employment vs. what might have happened without it. Jake Tapper nailed Press Schlubertary Bobby Gibbs on it:
TAPPER: In January, Dr. Romer, representing your incoming administration, put out a paper talking about the need for the stimulus package. And in it, she anticipated unemployment rates without the stimulus package basically where they are right now. In other words, it was a -- I don't want to call it a rosy scenario, but it was a more optimistic projection than what turned out to be. Are you guys...

GIBBS: What was the -- I don't -- I...

TAPPER: She predicted that the unemployment rate was, right now, would be what it actually is if the stimulus package didn't pass.

GIBBS: Right.

TAPPER: So my question is knowing that, being able to look at what the projections were in January and see that they're actually there -- slightly more optimistic than reality has proven...

GIBBS: Well...

TAPPER: Do you think...

GIBBS: Go ahead.

TAPPER: Well, do you think that there needs to be more action taken on stimulating the economy now that the rubber has met the road, so to speak?

GIBBS: Well, I think, to some degree, that curve, at least in the short term, the scenarios might well as easily matched each other based on the notion that when those figures were made, I think, in many ways, for a December meeting that the transition had to lay out a plan for developing that recovery, I think the bill did not get signed into law until -- if I remember -- the 12th or so of February.

I think, obviously, it's going to take some time to get that spending into the bloodstream of the American economy. That having been said, I think -- as you saw the president yesterday give people a progress report on the ability to get that money into the economy quickly, to do it in a way that was ahead of schedule and under budget, particularly, in highway and road projects, which are not terms you generally see within a few words of a highway project.

But I think the president is encouraged that the spending and the recovery plan are kicking in. Dr. Romer said this morning and I said yesterday that we're likely to see many more months of hundreds of thousands of jobs lost. I don't think -- I don't think anybody's under the illusion that, particularly, as it relates to the employment statistics or the employment market, that we're going to see an instantaneous turn around.

But the president and Dr. Romer and the entire economic team are pleased that we've taken steps to address the downturn in demand, to do that in a way that they believe will save or create three and a half million jobs and move from recession to recovery. I think the president expanded on that today by discussing, again, what he believes has to be done in order to lay a strong foundation for continued long-term economic growth, which is the goal.

TAPPER: If I could just do a follow-up on something you just said that the president said yesterday when announcing the 2,000th project as part of the transportation stimulus dollars. How many of those have actually started? I recognize it's 2,000 projects have been approved. But how many have actually started?

GIBBS: I can certainly look for a number. I think what we highlighted was the fact that you've got bids that are coming in. You've got the acceptance of a bid. But I can get exact numbers in terms of how much ground has actually been broken.

Remember, we all heard that we cannot debate the stimulus, we cannot discuss or refine. We must act now so we can keep 8% unemployment. Their chart said that unemployment would not go above 8% if we passed the stimulus. Well, maybe they labelled the chart backwards because we are more in a position for their forecasts of no stimulus. And all Gibbs and Team Big Lie can say is "wait for it, wait for it." Come on now. Gibbs's verbal diarrhea leads us to some key conclusions:
1) By their own estimation, the stimulus isn’t working as planned: The administration’s own estimates said that if the stimulus would pass, the unemployment rate would never rise above 8%. Its peak would be around 7.9% around the end of the year. Well…It’s at over 10 to 17 percent already, and slated to rise even more....
2) By their own estimation, the stimulus might be making things worse: The administration’s report showed that the unemployment rate would be about 8.1% right now if we had done NOTHING. So, it’s either that the stimulus plan is actually making things worse, or the economy is significantly worse than they thought.
3) What does this do to their estimates?: If their economic prognosis was this far off, this soon, what does this do to their deficit estimates 6 or 8 years out? They already were very ugly, but doesn’t this make them far worse?

Now, they do admit that there are high levels of uncertainty in their estimates–but this is the scenario that they’ve planned for. It’s early proof that the charges of “rosy scenarios” were correct.

Now who’s ready for their universal healthcare estimates?