Friday, August 05, 2005

Even More OH-02 Analysis

Dave, over at NixGuy, has an interesting post about Brown County that is wroth taking a look at, especially since I skewered 'em pretty good in this post. Here is what Dave has to say that I found so particularly interesting:
Some interesting factoids about Brown County Ohio:
Registered Democrats 4,612
Registered Republicans 3,763
Bet you didn’t know that.
No, I didn't actually. But that makes the Brown County GOP's failure that much more complete, if you ask me. Some Republicans stayed home in that county...and Jean Schmidt really needed them to come out for her.

Granted, Jean needed to reach out to those people. She needed to go to them and say that she was sorry for running such a nasty primary campaign against Tom Niehaus. I have sources in the Brown County GOP who have reported that they weren't thrilled at all to be working for her...so she didn't even bother to reach out to the Republican stalwarts who did come to her aid.

Here is Dave's conclusion:
1. Outside help and money and volunteers do make a significant impact.

2. Jean Schmidt needs to build up some trust and rapport with the Brown County GOP.

3. McEwen could have helped a lot if he had stuck around to sell Jean to his primary voters in the eastern counties. He was the biggest vote getter in Brown. That he did not says a lot about his character and his true desire to be involved in Ohio GOP politics.

4. 2nd District candidates can ignore the eastern counties, but only if they have very significant margins in Clermont, Hamilton, and Warren. Even then, ignoring the east would not be a wise course of action, you might need that margin.
My responses:

1. It seesm clear to me that the Ohio GOP has got to find a way to develop some "netroots' of their own. Bush/Cheney did it by embracing the bloggers and developing an eCampaign strategy. Ohio GOP would do well to learn from Bush/Cheney. While I am fundamentally opposed to outsiders from another state influencing local elections, that is the nature of the beast these days...

2. I would be pleasantly surprised to see Jean Schmidt make some inroads with the Brown County GOP. I'm not holding my breath though...

3. Bob McEwen should never have gotten himself involved in this race to begin with; but since he did, he should have done the right thing and stuck around... I also know from my sources that McEwen's support in Brown County wasn't because they liked Bob McEwen, they just thought he was the better of the four leading candidates and not neccessarily the best candidate.

4. I don't think Republican candidates should ignore any potential voter at any time. Part of Ohio GOP's problem is that they are thinking too much about winning elections and not near enough on what it is they are doing with the power they have amassed. I'm all for strategery, but let's remember that these politicans represent a constituentcy...

Great work by Dave...interesting thoughts as always...go read the whole thing.

Mark's Remarks


As the resident of Brown County in this jolly band of Conservatism, let me respond. The Brown County GOP can hardly be called a failure. In our local races, we swept the elections in 2004, including the Presidency and the Congressional races. This despite the fact we are outnumbered in terms of registered voters who identify a party affiliation. Mostly, Brown County is a conservative district. Well, you say, why did they vote Hackett?

1. The candidate for the Ds invigorated the base. Jean Schimdt did not. Rather, due to past poorly chosen comments, she alienated her base. In a straw poll done during the primaries, she received 1 vote out of 22 at the Central Committee meeting. This was due to her insulting the people and election board of Brown County after losing the State Senate Race to Tom Niehaus. Some people let that lead them to stay home who tend to vote GOP.

2. It was a special election in August. Despite many advances toward suburbia, Brown County remains a mostly agrarian area. Farmers are extremely busy during this time, and many did not come out to vote who might have.

3. The County GOP, honestly, did not do a good job of swallowing its pride and getting behind the candidate.

4. The Democratic candidate used deceitful commercials and ads that made the vastly conservative voters of the County think he was a moderate Democrat.

5. Because it was a special election, with a hurried process, many in the county did not research the candidates as well as they should have.

6. The splintering of the party by the billion candidates on the GOP side led to trouble.

7. The 2 Republican commissioners in the county are not popular because they have shown themselves to be more spending than investing, ala Bob Taft.

8. Hackett effectively used the Kerry veteran stealth haze to hide the fact he is anti-war, anti-soldiers in the field, and anti-Bush.