This just in the WMD Mailbag:New Poll Shows Majority of Ohioans Say Ohio, Country on Wrong TrackOkay...let's rip this apart shall we? These folks were kind enough to send along the marginals, so I can see exactly what the story is...
Boston, MA - With eight months until the 2006 mid-term elections, Ohio is witnessing heated contests in both the senatorial and gubernatorial races. A recent poll conducted by Suffolk University finds this battleground state leaning against Republicans both at home and nationally, despite a healthy showing by incumbent U.S. Senator Michael DeWine.
Perhaps most telling is that 62 percent of likely Ohio voters believe Ohio is on the wrong track and 65 percent similarly think that the country is on the wrong track. More than four in ten respondents are not supportive of the war in Iraq and a third would give President George W. Bush a grade of “F.” In contrast, Congressional Democrats received a failing grade from only 12 percent of those polled. Looking ahead to 2008, 41 percent said they would support a Democrat for President, while only 27 percent said they would support a Republican.
While politicians are talking about terrorism --73 percent of Ohioans say the issue is “very important” to them -- health care and education are the most important issues to most Ohioans, with 90 percent saying health care is “very important” and 89 percent saying education is “very important.”
A bill was filed recently in the Ohio legislature that would ban the adoption of children by gays and lesbians in the state. The poll showed Ohio as evenly divided on the issue: 42 percent of likely voters favored the adoption of children by gays and lesbians, while 44 percent opposed the same.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Michael DeWine held a comfortable 51-35 percent lead over Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown. The poll showed that both Republican gubernatorial candidates, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell and Attorney General Jim Petro, trail the presumed Democratic nominee Congressman Ted Strickland by 48-30 percent and 45-34 respectively. A simmering ethics scandal in the state has left retiring Governor Bob Taft with an extremely high unfavorable rating of 68 percent and caused nearly one third of respondents to state that they do not trust Petro.
Partisan breakdown of respondents:
Democrats-23 percent
Republicans-19 percent
Un-enrolled/Independent/Undeclared-57 percent
This Suffolk University poll was conducted from Saturday, March 3rd thru Tuesday, March 7th. The survey was completed with 440 likely voter respondents. The margin of error is +/- 4.67 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Suffolk University, located on Boston’s historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 8,300 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.
But before we get to that, let's take a look at the breakdown of the respondents...
Democrats-23 percentDoes ANYBODY believe that is a realistic representation of Ohio's electorate?
Republicans-19 percent
Un-enrolled/Independent/Undeclared-57 percent
From the marginals, we learn that 25% of the respondents were over the age of 65. In fact, 42% of the respondents were over the age of 55. Does that sound like Ohio's electorate?
Another 22.5% were in the 18 to 25 age bracket. Does that sound like the Ohio electorate?
68% of the respondents reported that they had no children in their household under the age of 18. Does that sound like the Ohio electorate?
The Wrong Track?
Paragpragh 2:Perhaps most telling is that 62 percent of likely Ohio voters believe Ohio is on the wrong track and 65 percent similarly think that the country is on the wrong track. More than four in ten respondents are not supportive of the war in Iraq and a third would give President George W. Bush a grade of “F.” In contrast, Congressional Democrats received a failing grade from only 12 percent of those polled. Looking ahead to 2008, 41 percent said they would support a Democrat for President, while only 27 percent said they would support a Republican.The bias is obvious when you realize what the release is NOT saying.
Roughly 6 in 10 respondents (57%) are supportive of the war in Iraq and two-thirds would not give President Bush an "F". In fact, according to the marginals, 53% give him a passing grade (if a "C" is passing...69% if you went to government schools that think a "D" passes).
In contrast, Congressional Democrats are "C" students. Darn near perfect grading curve too if you ask me. (A=3%, B=19%, C=43%, D=15%, F=12%, the remain 8% didn't answer the question.)
As for the 2008 presidential election, our friends from Suffolk aren't telling you that 32% of the respondents are still undecided...
Issues
The way the questions were worded, there is no way to come to the conclusion that any one issue is more or less important than any other because the issues were not ranked in any way.Sure you can say that because Issue A received more votes on a particular issue than Issue B, you can assume that Issue A is more important; but there is no way you can know for sure what issues are resonating unless you ask the respondents to rank the issues.
This poll fails to convince on the issues.
Final Thoughts
I could have some fun with the questions that were asked about Jim Petro, Ken Blackwell, Sherrod Brown, Paul Hackett and Mike DeWine...but this poll is worthless and so is the data contained therein, so why bother...8:30PM Update
NixGuy deems this poll "mostly worthless." I contend that the key word is still worthless.....Since Nix brought it up, the "trust Jim Petro" question was rather odd and stuck out badly. I'm not real sure who this question was supposed to benefit, but it turns out not to be Jim Petro. But again, the sample does NOT represent Ohio's electorate so the data is meaningless. Let's take the Petro trust question as an example:
Q13. Do you trust Attorney General Jim Petro?If Sean Hannity were to come to town and do "Man on the Street" Thursday in Columbus, Ohio, would nearly 75% of Ohioans even know who Jim Petro was? What about Cincinnati? Or Dayton? Or Cleveland?
N= 440 100%
Yes …………………………………….. 1 ( 1/ 88) 188 43%
No ……………………………………… 2 129 29%
Not sure (DO NOT READ) ……………………. 3 123 28%
Sure, you can make the argument that the "Man on the Street" segment doesn't reflect Ohio's electorate either. But I think that sample would be closer to reality than this poll. As usual, your mileage may vary.
And another reminder that the only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day.
(Hey Nix...at least we agree that this poll is totally useless on the issues... :)
