Rudy Giuliani Leads John McCain by More Than 2-to-1 in Race for Republican Nomination

From PR/US Newswire:

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is now the front runner by a wide margin in the race for the Republican nomination for the 2008 presidential election, even though the first primary elections will not take place until February 2008. Giuliani leads Senator John McCain by fully 39 percent to 18 percent among those who think they will vote in the Republican primaries or caucuses. Former Governor Mitt Romney (14%) and former Senator (and movie and TV star) Fred Thompson (13%) are not very far behind McCain. The only other candidate with more than two percent of Republican preferences is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (9%).

This Harris Poll surveyed 2401 U.S. adults online and was conducted by Harris Interactive(R) between April 3 and 16, 2007. This survey included 522 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus and like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential "horse race", at a very early stage in the race. A previous column assessed the standing of the leading Democrats(1).

Early in the survey, all adults were shown a list that included candidates in both major political parties as well as other Republican and Democratic leaders, and asked for whom they would consider voting. Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani (59%) leads Colin Powell (46%), John McCain (40%), Condoleeza Rice (39%), Mitt Romney (37%), Fred Thompson (31%) and Newt Gingrich (29%). Among all adults, the rank order of Republican leaders is almost identical to the rank order among potential Republican voters. This is because none of the Republican leaders have exceptionally strong appeal among Democrats and Independents.

At this time it seems that Republican candidates face an uphill battle against the Democrats. Overall 68 percent of all adults would consider voting for one of the listed Democratic leaders, compared to 59 percent who would consider voting for one of the Republicans.

(1) Harris Poll #32, Hillary Clinton Maintains Modest Lead Over Barack
Obama Among Potential Democratic Voters, April 19, 2007


TABLE 1
REPUBLICAN LEADERS ADULTS "WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR" FOR PRESIDENT

"Although the U.S. presidential election is not until November, 2008, there are a number of people who may run for president. If you were to vote and had to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people would you consider voting?"

Base: All adults


Total 2007 Party ID (April 2007)
Feb Mar Apr Republican Democrat Independent
% % % % % %
Rudy Giuliani 29 35 32 59 15 30
Colin Powell 32 30 29 46 19 28
John McCain 26 26 24 40 12 25
Condoleeza Rice 19 18 17 39 4 15
Fred Thompson N/A N/A 15 31 4 13
Mitt Romney 7 9 14 37 3 8
Newt Gingrich 11 11 12 29 2 8
Tommy Thompson 4 N/A 4 11 2 2
Mike Huckabee 3 4 3 8 1 3
Chuck Hagel 3 3 3 3 3 2
Tom Tancredo 3 3 3 7 * 2
Sam Brownback 2 2 2 7 * 1
Duncan Hunter 2 2 2 6 1 1
Ron Paul N/A N/A 2 3 1 2
Jim Gilmore N/A N/A 1 3 * 1

Note: Multiple-response question
*Less than 0.5%
N/A not applicable


TABLE 2
REPUBLICAN VOTERS FIRST CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Republican primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Republican primary or caucus


Total
%
Rudy Giuliani 39
John McCain 18
Mitt Romney 14
Fred Thompson 13
Newt Gingrich 9
Sam Brownback 2
Ron Paul 1
Tommy Thompson 1
Duncan Hunter 1
Mike Huckabee 1
Tom Tancredo 1
Jim Gilmore *
Chuck Hagel *

*Less than 0.5%


TABLE 3
SUMMARY: THOSE WHO WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR ANY OF THE LISTED LEADERS
AND CANDIDATES

Base: All adults


All Adults Party ID (April 2007)
Feb Mar Apr Republican Democrat Independent
% % % % % %
Would consider one
of the listed
Democratic leaders 71 69 68 37 93 67
Would consider one
of the Republican
leaders 58 59 59 92 35 60

Methodology

This Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between April 3 and 16, 2007 among 2,401 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,401 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- two percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J30279A (April)
Q 492, 2036