Mayor Giuliani is in an extremely favorable position heading into September - the month that traditionally accelerates the election cycle; by the first of October, the campaign will be in full speed.We ought to be able to tell in fairly short order what sort of effect that Fred Thompson will have on this race once he officially gets in next week.
We have had a very good summer. Our campaign is operating smoothly, working together and moving cohesively in the same direction. The Mayor and the campaign have been focused on a forward looking agenda with the 12 Commitments and continue to set the tone for discussion with voters. The commitments have successfully provided direction and focus to the national dialogue. Furthermore, the Mayor has performed exceptionally well in the debates. Overall we should be pleased with the state of the race and our position going into the fall.
Our lead in the states with the most delegates at stake is proving to be very solid and sustainable. We are well positioned to compete and win in both the traditional early states, Florida and key February 5th contests. And we prove to be the most competitive and viable general election candidate against Hillary Clinton.
NATIONAL POLLS
Since the start of the year, Mayor Giuliani's national poll numbers have defied both his critics and "so- called" conventional wisdom. Of particular note - the Mayor's national ballot support has been steadily climbing since mid-July. Midsummer, our Real Clear Politics average was approximately 25%, our Political Arithmetik trend was under 25% and our weekly public polling average was 26%. Mayor Giuliani's current Real Clear Politics average has grown to 28%, our Political Arithmetik trend has returned above 25% and weekly averaging is edging closer to 35%.
National major media polls conducted in August report Mayor Giuliani's ballot support posting modest gains and increasing and his lead growing. In a recent CBS poll, the Mayor's ballot share is 38%, up 5-points from the previous CBS poll conducted in early July. Furthermore, we post a 20-point lead over Senator Thompson - a 12-point increase in our lead.
August Polls Reporting Gains for Mayor Giuliani in Support and Advantage over GOP Field
Date
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Survey
Increase in Support
Increase in Advantage
8/22-8/26
Giuliani 27
McCain 12
Romney 15
Thompson 17
Hotline/Diageo
Increase in Support +7
Increase in Advantage +9
8/21-8/22
Giuliani 29
McCain 7
Romney 11
Thompson 14
FOX News
Increase in Support +2
Increase in Advantage +4
8/8-8/12
Giuliani 38
McCain 12
Romney 13
Thompson 18
CBS News
Increase in Support +5
Increase in Advantage +12
We are now in our strongest position in nearly 5 months. Not only has our ballot share been on the increase, we have seen our lead over our nearest opponent grow as well. In August, the Mayor's average lead over his closest opponent in major media polls is 12-points. According to the Gallup Poll1, an analysis of elections since 1952 shows that in almost every case, the man to whom Republican voters were giving the highest poll total in the fall before the election ended up becoming the eventual GOP nominee, and in no situation did a strong front-runner go on to lose the nomination. Furthermore, Mayor Giuliani has led every Gallup poll conducted in 2007 and enjoys a double digit advantage over the rest of the GOP Primary field.
National Major Media Polls Conducted in August
Date
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Survey
Advantage over 2nd Place
Average
Giuliani 31
McCain 12
Romney 12
Thompson 19
Advantage over 2nd Place +12
8/22-8/26
Giuliani 27
McCain 12
Romney 15
Thompson 17
Hotline/Diageo
Advantage over 2nd Place +10
8/21-8/22
Giuliani 29
McCain 7
Romney 11
Thompson 14
FOX News
Advantage over 2nd Place +15
8/13-8/16
Giuliani 32
McCain 11
Romney 14
Thompson 19
Gallup
Advantage over 2nd Place +13
8/8-8/12
Giuliani 38
McCain 12
Romney 13
Thompson 18
CBS
Advantage over 2nd Place +20
8/6-8/8
Giuliani 29
McCain 16
Romney 12
Thompson 22
CNN
Advantage over 2nd Place +7
8/3-8/5
Giuliani 33
McCain 16
Romney 8
Thompson 21
USA Today/Gallup
Advantage over 2nd Place +12
8/1/2007
Giuliani 30
McCain 13
Romney 13
Thompson 22
Newsweek
Advantage over 2nd Place +8
FEBRUARY 5 STATES
We are very strong in key states, like New York , New Jersey , Connecticut and California - states with a total of more than 350 delegates at stake. In New York and New Jersey , we average just under 50% of the vote share and lead our nearest opponent by approximately 30-points. In Connecticut the Mayor has been the frontrunner in every poll conducted and maintains an average lead of more than 20-points. In the last 2 California polls the Mayor has a lead of 20 or more points. New York , New Jersey , Connecticut and Delaware are "winner take all" states, and will provide 200+ delegates for Mayor Giuliani on that day. Given the complex nature of delegate allocation in other states plus large leads in delegate-rich states like California and Illinois , a triple-digit delegate lead after February 5 is a distinct possibility.
THE EARLY STATES
Florida remains a strong state for the Mayor. Rudy Giuliani has lead essentially every Republican primary poll conducted in Florida in 2007 and after a brief tightening in state polling in June and July; the Mayor has begun to reopen his lead - now more than 10-points on average.
New Hampshire is slowly developing in to a two-way race between Mitt Romney and Mayor Giuliani and our internal average of public polls shows that Mayor Giuliani is beginning to narrow the race. Senator McCain continues to be strong in New Hampshire though.
Despite several lead changes in South Carolina , Mayor Giuliani has been consistently strong. Mayor Giuliani has led 6 of 7 polls in South Carolina this year, and has consistently been in first or second place in South Carolina polling. And Fred Thompson seems to have begun a bit of a decline since late May and early June.
THE FIELD
It is clear that Senator Thompson's indecision may have cost him his best opportunity to enter this race with the momentum he once had. That said, he still has the opportunity to enter this race and regain some of the momentum that he had 2 months ago, but it will be difficult. However, that is not to say that we should not anticipate a bump in the polls for Senator Thompson when he announces his candidacy next week.
To be certain, Senator McCain is still a serious candidate in the race, and he should not be ignored as an opponent for the nomination. Senator McCain has proven himself to be a very good grassroots campaigner, and while his organization has gone through ups and downs, voters still see Senator McCain as a top-tier candidate. Governor Romney has run a textbook campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire and has been slowly building in national polls. In Iowa , Governor Romney began the year with about 7% of likely caucus goers supporting him. Through extensive paid media saturation he has been able to inflate that number to over 25%. Nationally, he began the year averaging about 6% and is now nearing 15% in national polls. And Governor Romney has once again moved into a 4th place average in national polls, surpassing Newt Gingrich.
Governor Romney's spending in Iowa has been remarkable. By most estimations, he has spent at least $5 million dollars in Iowa this year and has the poll numbers to show for it. His grassroots organization does not appear to be quite as strong as many had thought - he only turned out 4,500 votes in the Ames Straw Poll (at a cost of about $880 a vote).
We assumed, with no top-tier opposition, he would consolidate a lot more of the votes and would at least match President Bush's 1999 winning effort. In fact, his organization did not even match Steve Forbes' 2nd place effort of 4,921 votes. Governor Romney has spent a great deal of money in an environment that has been a vacuum and without any real competition. Therefore, despite his tremendous spending, large staff and double-digit lead, the relative weakness of Mitt Romney's Straw Poll victory seems to leave him open to defeat in Iowa in the caucuses. Despite large field organizations and having spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television in South Carolina and Florida , Governor Romney has not made real progress like he has in Iowa or New Hampshire . In South Carolina Governor Romney has been unable to keep support consistently above 10%. In Florida Governor Romney has leveled off with about 10% of Republican primary voters supporting him - placing him and Senator McCain in a tight battle for 3rd.
In all, Governor Romney has spent millions of dollars on cable television and broadcast communications and has seen a fair return on his early investment.
GENERAL ELECTION
While it is early to look ahead to the general election, recent polls question the viability of Mitt Romney in the 2008 general election. In 13 of 15 polls conducted this week by Survey USA , Mitt Romney was the weakest Republican candidate tested against presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Even in Massachusetts Governor Romney was a weaker general election candidate against Hillary Clinton than Mayor Giuliani.
According the a recent Pew Research Center survey, Mitt Romney would enter the general election with more voters having an unfavorable opinion of him than voters have of Hillary Clinton. Any Republican entering the general election with higher "unfavs" than Hillary Clinton will find it very difficult to win.
It is too soon to assess the general election viability of Fred Thompson. We have yet to see if Fred Thompson will be able to carry a Republican message nationally or will have to focus on a smaller, regional base.
CONCLUSIONS
Overall our operations and poll numbers are strengthening in Iowa and New Hampshire . The Mayor continues to do very well in South Carolina and Florida . (With Michigan moving its primary to January 15th, I suspect the Mayor will enter that race in a very strong position).
Our advantage in states with the most delegates is proving to be solid and durable. We are positioned to both compete in and win the traditional early contests, Florida and key February 5 states. Furthermore, public polling continues to prove we are the most competitive and viable general election candidate against Hillary Clinton.
I disagree that it is too early to be looking at the possible general election match ups and drawing some tentative conclusions. Rudy has been the only candidate that has been fairly competitive against Hillary! and Obama. Fred Thompson, while liked by the conservative blogosphere, has a long road to travel to make his numbers come even close to what Rudy has achieved thus far.
