POLL: Jean Schmidt Crushes Vic Wulsin

The headline is my words, not theirs...but here is the release:

Cincinnati, Ohio – The Campaign of Congresswoman Jean Schmidt today released the results of a new voter survey looking at the fall elections. The results show that the Second Congressional District is very solid Schmidt territory. The survey reveals that Congresswoman Schmidt begins the fall campaign with an 18 point lead over her challenger.

“Congresswoman Schmidt is deeply grateful for the tremendous level of support she is receiving across the district,” Bruce Pfaff, spokesman for the Schmidt Campaign said.

Victoria Wulsin comes out of the Democrat Primary with more voters having a negative view of her than a positive one. It appears that allegations of Wulsin’s involvement in human testing experiments have weighed heavily on voters’ minds.

“Jean Schmidt is more popular now than ever with voters in stark contrast to Ms. Wulsin’s free fall. We begin the campaign with an 18 point lead in stark contrast to the political environment in 2006,” Pfaff added.

The survey reveals that Wulsin has a net negative rating in every county except rural Pike. Cincinnati television news and advertising regarding the human testing experiments are not viewed in Pike County where Columbus television stations are broadcast.

“It is now quite clear why the Democratic National Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced last week they had removed Wulsin from a list of candidates they plan to support. No doubt the DCCC has seen the same numbers and realizes that further support of Wulsin is a futile endeavor. She is the physician but I think it is fair to say that her third campaign for congress is in critical condition,” Pfaff added.

Before we get to the numbers, I want to preempt Modern Esquire and point out that the DCCC's Red-to-Blue program announement was about the second tier. Previously, the Schmidt vs. Wulsin race didn't make the list until the fourth tier, so there can be some wiggle room there... I think that the bigger point there is that if Schmidt were as weak as many of her critics on both sides of the aisle say she is, Wulsin would have been announced in the second tier.

Okay, you all want numbers so here they are:

In the general election for U.S. Congress if the election were held today for whom would
you vote?

Schmidt 51%
Wulsin 33%
Krikorian (Ind) 8%
Undecided 9%

Geographic breakdown

Region: Schmidt / Wulsin / Krikorian / Undecided

Hamilton County: 52 / 32 / 9 / 7
Clemont/Warren Counties: 51 / 31 / 9 / 9
Eastern Counties: 48 / 38 / 4 / 10

I'd still like to see Schmidt do better...the 9% undecided still allows some room for that to happen. Where might she pick up some of that support? Clearly she's solid in Clermont, Hamilton, and Warren counties...she should keep working on Brown, Adams and Highland. I still think she could pick up some undecideds in Clermont and Warren as well.

The survey was taken March 11th and 12th with a survey size of 400 and a margin of error at +/- 4.9%.

I'm not thrilled with the error of margin although if all 5 points went to Wulsin, Jean would still beat her by double digits. There is no way all 9 points worth of undecideds break for Wulsin and that is the only way she wins.