Sunday, June 07, 2009

What is really going on with Jennifer Brunner & Marilyn Brown?

Jennifer Brunner says she is 100% running for the US Senate seat and there is a 0% chance that she will run for re-election (even went so far to send out a letter to a portion of the dem donor community on Marilyn Brown's behalf because no one believed Marilyn's candidacy was real and her fundraising was going horribly).

So far EMILYS List has provided Jennifer Lee with staff and some money, but they have not turned on the big fundraising spigot yet. My question to EMILYS List is this:

If you walk away from a candidate as good as Brunner then how in the world will you be credible with other substantive female candidates in the future?

FYI to EMILYS List: The reason Jennifer Lee's fundraising is going so poorly is not because she is not working hard. It is because Gov. Ted has Ohio's donor community by the short hairs and he isn't letting go anytime soon.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: If JLB gets the funding then she will beat Lee. If she can't put the dollars together then Lee will win.

My question to Jennifer Lee is this: On what day & time do you pull the plug on this Senate bid if Lee's fundraising advantage gets too big? Frankly, I hope it is late, late, late, but to not screw yourself, Marilyn Brown and the dems you probably need to make the call by September/October.

Any later than that and things will start to get a little dicey for the dem ticket.

Play it out if we are still having this discussion in December 09/January 10 or later.

Marilyn raises $ for SOS from now until 12/09 or 1/10 or later while JLB is raising money into her US Senate account for a US Senate bid.

My guess is Marilyn’s fundraising is going to be VERY slow at first because a lot of the dem $$$ crowd statewide has no desire to give thousands of dollars of their hard-earned $ in this economy to a sitting Franklin County Commissioner who may very well end up running for re-election in Franklin County if Brunner backs into her bid for re-election to SOS. Dems in Cleveland, Dayton, Toledo, Cincinnati, etc. have a lot of things they would like to spend their money on before a county commission race in Columbus.

The best thing that could happen for Marilyn Brown is for Brunner’s fundraising for her US Senate race to pick up.

If Brunner’s federal fundraising for her US Senate race starts to pick up momentum then Brown’s state of Ohio fundraising for Secretary of State will also pick up momentum because the donors to the Brown SOS bid will start to gain confidence that Marilyn is not just a “placeholder” for Brunner.

No dem donor in their right mind (who does not care about Franklin County Commission) would give Marilyn Brown substantive money UNTIL Brunner’s fundraising picks up.

If Brunner’s federal fundraising never gains traction and we start to get towards the end of the calendar year then you will see Brunner back into a bid with her tail between her legs for re-election to SOS and Brown will back into a re-election bid for Commissioner.

I feel sorry for Marilyn Brown & the Judge. They can bang their collective heads against the wall for months without getting much traction at all and it won’t be their fault.

The people that Marilyn & Judge Brown should be pissed off at are EMILYS List (for not going “all in” with Jennifer Lee) and with Governor Strickland (to a large degree) & Redfern (Chris the chair not Kim the lobbyist) for completely playing hardball with the dem donor community statewide.

TO: The Browns: Make no mistake about it. The Governor & Redfern shutting down Brunner’s money is having a direct impact on your fundraising. If Brunner raises enough money to run a credible race against Lee you will probably get to be the dem candidate for SOS. If Brunner does not raise enough money because of Ted & Chris’ hardball maneuvers then she will be forced to back into the SOS thus forcing you into a re-election bid for a job you no longer want.