Monday, July 05, 2010

Rasmussen: Kasich Up?

Yep, sports fans, John Kasich is up by 7 points among likely voters according to one of our favorites, Rasmussen. From Rasmussen Reports:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the governor’s race in Ohio finds Republican John Kasich with a 47% to 40% lead over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland - for the second month in a row. Three percent (3%) of Likely Voters in the state prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided. Kasich, a former congressman, holds a double-digit lead among male voters, while female voters break essentially even between the two candidates. Voters not affiliated with either party favor the Republican by a 45% to 28% margin.

Sounds pretty good, right? Well, not exactly. Neither candidate is getting much traction:
The players are the same, and the numbers haven’t changed. But both major party candidates show a continuing inability to move their vote totals out of the range they’ve been in for months. Kasich earned 47% support to Strickland’s 42% last month.

In April and May, the candidates were basically tied. Prior to that time, Kasich had held modest leads over Strickland. Since December, Kasich’s support has remained in the narrow range of 46% to 49%, while Strickland’s in that same period have fallen in the 38% to 45% range.

Strickland was elected governor in 2006 with 60% of the vote.

OK, so while Kasich maintains a lead, and is doing well with independents, we still see that 10% of likely voters haven't made up his/her mind. Also, Kasich, despite woeful performance by Strickland, cannot get over the 49% hump. And, despite his horrible performance and such, Strickland appears to be entrenched with at least 40% of people.

So, while it does appear team Kasich has been right in terms of the numbers not moving (I insert a big YET here)due to negative attack ads by Strickland, one wonders for those 10% who haven't broken one way or another yet, what exact impressions are they building about Kasich? Even though they haven't committed yet, are they being indoctrinated with the idea of him as the hand that rocked the financial world, the ludicrous claim of the strickland campaign? So, while I would say this is decent news for Team Kasich, I do think they need to keep up the pressure and actually getting the ORP (Ohio RINOvich Party, with the turdlike new logo)to acknowledge them on the internet as the top of the ticket would be nice, as well.