About that Quinny Poll

PolitickerOH noted a Quinny poll that has Obama up by 6 (48 - 42) here in the Great State of Ohio.

Here is the Ohio analysis from the Quinny folks:

Obama leads 51 - 39 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men go 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters also are narrowly divided with 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, but Obama commands black voters 90 - 6 percent. The Democrat also leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain has the 47 - 43 percent edge among voters over 55.

Again, 13 percent of those who voted for Bush in 2004 now back Obama, while 25 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain.

Voters give Obama a 52 - 29 percent favorability, with 46 - 33 percent for McCain.

Because of his age, 22 percent of Ohio voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 89 percent say.

While 85 percent of Ohio voters say the vice presidential selection is "very important" or "somewhat important" to their votes, native sons do not fare well. Voters say:

17 - 11 percent that they are less likely to vote Democratic if Gov. Ted Strickland is the running mate, while 68 percent say it won't make a difference;

10 - 5 percent that they are less likely to vote Republican if Sen. Rob Portman is the vice presidential candidate, while 78 percent say it won't make a difference.

"Although he still trails among white working-class voters, Sen. Obama is within hailing distance among them and doing well enough that if he keeps the same level of support through November he's likely to carry Ohio," Brown said.

I can buy the results from Buckeye women. McCain will need to do significant outreach to women not just in Ohio, but everywhere else too.

If the racial breakdown is to be believed, then Ohio's blacks are pretty racist. For the record, I don't believe these numbers. And if Ohio's blacks were this racist, we'd be talking about Gov. Blackwell... (UPDATE: Let me be clear, I don't think Ohio's African-American community is racist based on these numbers. UPDATE 2: After having to repeat this point three times in the comments, I decided to re-read what I wrote here and decided that I wasn't as clear on the point as I probably could/should have been... My point: if 90% of Ohio's Caucasians were voting for McCain, we'd be hearing about how racist Ohio is; but when 90% of Ohio's African-Americans vote for Obama there isn't a peep. I probably should have split that off from commentary on the poll itself, but since the topic was the poll... I'd be curious to see numbers on the African-American community that delve in to whether they are voting for Obama based on the color of his skin or the content of his character.)

I can buy the young voter numbers. But I suspect that there is something wrong with the rest of the age categories. The 35-to-42 group should favor McCain in Ohio because he's their kind of candidate: purple. And no way Ohio's seniors put Obama that close to McCain.

I'd love to tell you what I think is wrong with these numbers, but Quinny didn't tell us what the demographics are...

I will say one thing I found interesting that neither Quinny or PolitckerOH found telling... The McCain voters approve of the performance of President Bush 85 to 26. If my math is right, that's 36% (85% of the 42% McCain captured in the poll) of Ohio... According to this Quinny poll from May, Red states give Bush a 31% approval while purple states like Ohio give Bush a 27% (Question 10). But we're supposed to believe that 36% of Ohio favors how the president is handling his responsibilities.

Obama fans may find the above paragraph encouraging by thinking that there must be a sampling error in McCain's favor in this poll and Obama still wins. I don't think that's the case, but again, Quinny didn't give us the demographics to make the case one way or the other. I will say this, though, if 36% of Ohio really does think President Bush is doing a good job, that is not good news for Obama.

Again, Obama is going to do well in the urban areas, but he is going to have a serious problem in the western third of the state and southeastern Ohio is not likely to identify with Obama's values either. The most telling sign that this poll is junk is that Obama himself has written off Ohio.

McCain is going to have to work for it in the Great State of Ohio, but these numbers shouldn't depress him just yet.